Five Bold Phillies Predictions for 2026

Opening Day is finally here, and with that, another season of Phillies baseball gets underway at 4:15 this afternoon. An organization that has both exceeded expectations and underwhelmed fans at the same time for over a century will look to do only the former this season.

Currently, their win total over-under is set at 89.5, despite winning 96 games and winning the NL East last season. I’d even argue this team has become more well-rounded, with back-end of the bullpen additions, a new look in right field, and adding an injection of youth. I may not agree with the sportsbooks, but everyone’s entitled to their own opinions and predictions.

Which brings us to my predictions, and to forewarn, they are bold ones:

Adolis Garcia Notches 30 Home Runs

I have to show some love to the new guy, and Garcia isn’t a far cry from his prime. Three seasons ago, he hit 39 bombs on his way to an All-Star game appearance and 14th-place finish for MVP. In 2024, Garcia scraped by with mediocre metrics, but still cracked 25 home runs. 2025 was the fruition of his declining metrics. Garcia posted his worst season at the plate as an established starter, with a .232 expected batting average and a 30% whiff rate; nonetheless, he cranked 19 bombs in a stadium that’s home run park factor is just about average.

Now, Garcia makes his way over to South Philadelphia, into Citizens Bank Park, one of the most home run-friendly parks in baseball. His refined swing finally showed results in the final few games of Spring Training, as he finished with an .858 OPS. All things considered — fresh environment, home run-friendly stadium, refined swing mechanics — I expect Garcia to reach the 30 home run mark for the second time in his career.

Brad Keller Wins Reliever of the Year Award

The boldest part about this take is Keller won’t be this season’s closer, barring something awful, and the Reliever of the Year award almost exclusively goes to closers.

But besides that glaring hole in this bold take, Keller is an absolute stud. It doesn’t matter what stat page you pull up, BaseballReference, BaseballSavant, or FanGraphs, this guy can pitch — as a reliever that is. Ignore any year before last, when the Cubs made him a reliever, because those numbers are from his starting days.

In 2025, Keller posted a 2.07 ERA through 69.2 innings in 12 appearances with three saves and 75 strikeouts. His four-seam jumps out of the hand with an average velocity of 97.2 mph, but it’s his devastating sweeper and sinker that top the charts of many data sheets. Last season, his sweeper produced a 45.8% whiff rate and a .067 batting average, while his sinker recorded a 31% put away rate and a .147 batting average.

The newly-acquired reliever will likely be used as the bridge to Jhoan Duran, but he’s also able to handle the closing duties if Duran has the night off. I wouldn’t consider it likely — at all — but Keller winning the Reliever of the Year award isn’t out of this world.

Alec Bohm Actually Produces in the Clean-Up Spot

Bold right? Not actually that bold, in my opinion.

Bohm has been a league-average third baseman at the plate; it’s nothing to bat your eye at, but the overwhelming disdain towards him is overdone. For quite some time, the Phillies have relied on him to protect Bryce Harper in the lineup, and I wouldn’t say last season was a success in that regard, but I believe this season will be.

The 6’5 slap-hitting third baseman is entering a contract year, and he’s going to need to do more than slap-hit if he wants a contract before the inevitable lockout. We’ve seen him succeed at the plate before; through the first 94 games of 2024, he posted an .830 OPS while slugging nearly .500.

It’s not ridiculous to think Bohm can reach those levels again. He’s getting added protection with a bat-to-ball hitter in Bryson Stott behind him, which means with runners on, pitchers should be more inclined to pitch to Bohm. His expected batting average last season was .275, which couples well with a 93rd percentile whiff rate and 80th percentile strikeout rate. His other contact metrics didn’t fall off from 2024 to 2025 either. The average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and sweet-spot rate are all in the same vicinity.

He’s more than capable of posting solid numbers behind Harper, and that’s really all he needs to do to be worthwhile for this team.

Jesus Luzardo Finishes Top 3 in Cy Young

What’s a bold prediction list without a really bold prediction?

Luzardo’s 2025 season with the Phillies is hard to generalize; sometimes he looked like the Phillies third ace, other times, more like an inning eater. His 3.92 ERA is just as hard to wrap your head around. From March 29th to May 25th, Luzardo posted a 2.15 ERA through 67 innings pitched, paired with 77 strikeouts — he was dominant. Every pitch was working, including the new sweeper that he learned from Caleb Cotham.

But it came tumbling down in consecutive blow-ups against the Brewers and Blue Jays. It was theorized that teams had found a tip on Luzardo with runners on, and it became hard to deny as he allowed four-plus runs in seven of his starts after, while previously not allowing four runs in any start.

The pitch tipping is — hopefully — solved for this season, and the rest of the stuff is still there for Luzardo. Cotham has even developed his change-up further to add more depth in exchange for velocity. The pitch arsenal keeps expanding for an already great pitcher. I think Luzardo can have his early 2025 success throughout the 2026 season and finish top three in Cy Young voting.

Justin Crawford Wins Rookie of the Year

If Crawford wins Rookie of the Year, the Phillies might win the World Series — and that’s exactly why I chose it.

Crawford is going to be an everyday starter, at least to start the season, and likely bat ninth, which means he can truly make an impact for this team by flipping the lineup over to the big guys. And with Crawford on base. pitchers are going to struggle. Luckily for the Phils, Crawford excelled at getting on base in Lehigh Valley with a .411 on-base percentage.

The talk surrounding Crawford is his exceptionally high ground ball rate of 60%. Nonetheless, that rate assisted him to a .334 batting average in the minor leagues last season. Notably, Crawford’s batting average on balls in play is .407, which would have led the majors last year. The next closest BABIP was Aaron Judge at .376.

High BABIP often gets the reputation that the hitter is getting lucky, but for Crawford, it might just be his 75-grade speed that’s playing a factor. If these numbers hold up for the rookie, even when they inevitably regress because he’s jumping levels, Crawford will have a solid case for Rookie of the Year.

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