Chirping a Different Tune—Series Preview: Cardinals at Phillies, August 25 – 27

Less than one year ago, the Phillies took down the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Wild Card round in the 2022 playoffs, marking the start of an improbable yet incredible postseason run that will never be overlooked in Philadelphia. Nine months later, the Cardinals and Phillies will face off once again as the Phightins look to continue running away with the first Wild Card spot and as the Cardinals’ disappointing 2023 campaign carries on.

Coming into the series, the Phillies are two games ahead of the second-place Cubs and 2.5 games in front of the third-place D-Backs, who have a .5-game lead over the Giants and Reds for the final Wild Card spot. With the 82-44 Braves continuing to power through opposing pitchers, the division is about as close to over as it can get without the Braves actually clinching. According to FanGraphs, the Phillies have an 82.9% chance of being a Wild Card team while the Braves have a 0.0% chance, emphasizing how uncompetitive the NL East has become.

A Quick Decline

In 2023, the vibes were at an all-time high for the Redbirds. Albert Pujols wowed fans whenever he was penciled into the Cardinals’ lineup, and he achieved what most considered impossible by surpassing the 700 home run mark. Beloved franchise catcher Yadier Molina was in his last season with the Cardinals, and despite having ups and downs offensively, he was still one of the most feared backstops in the sport. Rookies Brendan Donovan, Juan Yepez, and Nolan Gorman had big moments for St. Louis, and the backend of the Cardinals’ bullpen featured the lethal trio of Giovanny Gallegos, Jordan Hicks, and Ryan Helsley, who was virtually unhittable for most of the regular season.

Despite their quick exit, Cardinals fans were still thankful for one of the most memorable seasons in their franchise’s recent history. Even with Pujols and Molina hanging up their cleats, the future still looked bright for St. Louis.

Evident by their 56-72 record in 2023, however, this assumption about a bright future was misguided—this year’s Cardinals are chirping a very different tune. Nolan Gorman, one of the three aforementioned rookies, just got back from the IL after a season riddled with the highest of highs and lowest of lows. Juan Yepez found himself in triple-A after a rough start to the season. Brendan Donovan suffered a season-ending injury amid a strong sophomore season. Even Lars Nootbaar, who proved that his strong 2022 wasn’t a fluke, recently hit the shelf after painfully fouling a ball off himself.

On the pitching front, Adam Wainwright, whose ERA hovered around 3.00 for most of 2022, has posted an 8.61 ERA in 17 starts this season. Former top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore had a 6.12 ERA before hitting the IL. Steven Matz, who posted a 2.17 ERA in July, hit the IL at the beginning of August after finally finding his stride for the first time since signing with St. Louis in November 2021. The Cardinals also lost Jose Quintana to free agency in the offseason, and Jordan Montgomery, who came into the season as the Cards’ ace, was traded at the deadline alongside Paul Dejong, Genesis Cabrera, Jordan Hicks, Jack Flaherty, and Chris Stratton.

The Cardinals season can be summarized as let down after let down and loss after loss. No one saw it coming, but hey, the Phils will take it!

A Tall Task for Phils’ Starters

Clearly, the expectations for the Phillies’ offense should be sky-high given the poor state of the Cardinals’ rotation, but it’s also important that the Phils’ pitchers do not underestimate the Cardinals’ lineup. With perennial all-stars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado atop their lineup, the Cardinals—when healthy—still have one of the most potent offenses in MLB.

Rookie Jordan Walker has had a strong first season in St. Louis, as he’s hitting .257 and has 11 home runs in 303 at-bats. Tyler O’Neill has a 1.046 OPS in his last seven games, and catcher Wilson Contreras has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball since the All-Star break.

Needless to say, the offense-heavy Cardinals have a deceiving record considering their solid lineup, but Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, both of whom shut out the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card series, have a good track record against the Cards.

Game Times and Broadcasts

• Friday, August 25, at 7:05 pm ET on MLB Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
• Saturday, August 26, at 7:15 pm ET on FOX, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
• Sunday, August 27, at 1:35 pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Christopher Sanchez (LHP, 1-3, 3.36 ERA) vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP, 6-9, 4.55 ERA)
Game 2: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 5-0, 3.95 ERA) vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP, 5-0, 3.95 ERA)
Game 3: Aaron Nola (RHP, 11-8, 4.49 ERA) vs. Drew Rom (RHP, 0-1, 14.73 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Record
• Phillies: 69-58
• Cardinals: 56-72

• Run Differential
• Phillies: 49
• Cardinals: -56

• Runs Scored Per Game
• Phillies: 4.74
• Cardinals: 4.58

• Runs Allowed Per Game
• Phillies: 4.35
• Cardinals: 5.02