Andrew Painter Optioned to Triple-A: Phillies Can’t Ignore the Struggles Any Longer

Remember Spencer Howard? The second-round pick who posted a 7.06 ERA through 12 starts for the Phillies in 2020 and 2021 before being traded to the Texas Rangers?

Well, actually, those numbers belong to Andrew Painter and his 2026 rookie season.

Spencer Howard: 13 starts | 52.2 Innings | 5.81 ERA
Andrew Painter: 12 Starts | 65 Innings | 7.06 ERA

Howard now plays for the Yomiuri Giants in Japan’s Nippon Professional League. Painter was the Phillies’ fifth starter in the rotation. Following a start which lasted two innings, allowing six hits, six runs, two walks, and two home runs to the Marlins on Wednesday, the Phillies optioned Painter to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. A corresponding roster move to replace his spot on the 26-man roster will be made Thursday.

There is plenty of context missing from these numbers and statements. In 2022, Painter cruised his way through the Phillies’ minor league system and looked to get called up the following season, but experienced elbow soreness in Spring Training. The Phillies tried to avoid surgery, but inevitably, he went under the knife to fix his UCL with Tommy John.

Painter got back on the horse in the fall of 2024 and returned to the mound for the Iron Pigs in 2025. He started 22 games, pitching 206.1 innings, and posting a 5.65 ERA — the worst of his minor league career.

Then, finally, in the Spring of 2026, Painter got the call-up. His first start was solid, 5.1 innings of one-run baseball, and his next few were alright — a few blow-up starts here and there, with a couple of quality starts sprinkled in as well.

None of his appearances have gone over 6 2/3 innings, though.

Following Wednesday afternoon’s start, the Phillies right-hander has totaled 15 innings in his last four starts, allowing 17 earned runs and seven home runs.

Bad is an understatement.

“I would say [his confidence] almost has to waver some,” Don Mattingly said postgame Wednesday. “He’s been pretty resilient to this point, but I’m sure it’s wavering.”

So what’s going on with the former top prospect in baseball?

For one, he lost his fastball — literally.

This season, Painter has thrown his fastball 33.7% of the time with a velocity of 96.5 MPH and a spin rate of 2,254. In 2022, before his surgery, Painter threw his fastball 66% of the time with a velocity of 96.7 MPH and a spin rate of 2408.

While the velocity hasn’t changed much, his fastball spin has dropped 150 revolutions per minute. It may not seem significant enough, but it’s the same spin difference between 2017 Zack Wheeler‘s fastball, which had a 19.4 whiff rate, and 2023 Wheeler’s fastball, which had a 31.2 whiff rate.

“We’re trying,” Painter said when asked about getting his fastball back to pre-surgery levels. “We’ve been searching for some things; it’s gotten a little better than it was, but still not to the extent of what it was pre-TJ [surgery].”

For a pitcher like Painter, who relies on his fastball as a put-away pitch, the drop in spin rate has been devastating. In Wednesday’s loss, Painter only threw 11 four-seam fastballs because he couldn’t establish it against one of the worst offensive teams in the league.

“Sometimes the movement isn’t what [he wants],” Mattingly said. “He’s still throwing 97-98, but he’s still gotta get the ball to spots. Nowadays, 98 is kinda normal, and it depends on extension and spin… we see with when he first came back, he’s throwing 93-94 and getting tons of misses with his fastball.”

Another notable difference is Painter’s arm angle — on all of his pitches. Per Fangraphs, the former first-rounder had an arm angle ranging from 14-17 on his fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup in 2022, pre-surgery. Upon his return, his arm angle shot up; In 2025, he was in the low-to-mid 40s, and now his arm angle ranges from 42-52 — a larger disparity.

I’m not as well-versed in Fangraphs’ arm angle tracking, but the disparity alone is concerning. Hitters have a much easier time recognizing his fastball (arm angle of 48) compared to his slider (arm angle of 42).

And funny enough, those are the two pitches he uses the most this season.

For the time being, the Phillies front office will likely view this as giving Painter a “rehab” stint down in Lehigh Valley, where he can find the fastball he lost with Tommy John surgery. Because until then, he’s not an MLB-ready pitcher, and there’s someone in Lehigh Valley right now who will give the Phillies a better chance to win, considering the team is 1-11 in Painter’s last 12 starts.

“We’ve gotta evaluate, and try to find out who I am as a pitcher right now,” Painter said.

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