Series Preview: Phillies at Padres, June 23 – 26

For better or worse, the Phils are staying out West. It’s hard to tell whether this is a good or bad thing, but we will find out. The Phillies had an excellent series out West earlier in the season, where they took two of three from the Mariners and three of four from the Dodgers. Realistically, the Phillies would lose the first game in this series with Joe Musgrove on the mound, but it would be classic Phillies baseball if they light up one of the best pitchers in the league after being swept by the Rangers.

Last time they met

The Phightins hosted the Padres in the middle of May, where one of those clouds of offensive struggles formed overhead of the Phillies. They were shut out in two of the three games in the series, and they only scored three total runs. Zach Eflin, Zack Wheeler, and Kyle Gibson all threw very well in their starts, but they were given no run support by the Phillies’ offense. The only offensive production from the Phillies in the entire series came in game three—J.T. Realmuto hit an RBI single, Rhys Hoskins homered, and Odubel Herrera hit an RBI double.

Since then, the Padres have stayed consistent. They left Philly with a 24-14 record (.632) and currently have a record of 44-27 (.620). But as we know, the Phillies have been completely different until this past series in Texas. The Phillies went on a nine-game winning streak and finally got above .500.

Recently, the Padres have been playing very well. They are 11-5 in their last sixteen games and have won three straight.

Fine-tuning the defense

In Texas, the Phillies’ defense was awful. They made silly errors, cut each other off, and made mental errors that you wouldn’t see out of a major-league-caliber player. Rob Thomson said that he addressed this during Wednesday’s game. The Phillies will not have room for physical or mental defensive mistakes in this series. Even though the Pads are missing Fernando Tatis Jr., they still have a strong offense led by Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, and former-Phil Jorge Alfaro.

Machado is day-to-day with a minor ankle sprain. He is not expected to land on the IL, but it is unclear how long he’ll be out.

A challenge for the offense

This series will challenge the Phillies’ offense, as they are facing one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. They are among the top five in team ERA and have a strong, balanced mix of veterans and young players. The Phils will also face two left-handed pitchers in this series. This could cause some trouble for Kyle Schwarber and Bryson Stott, but we could also see guys like Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins succeed.

Pitching matchups

Game 1: Ranger Suarez (LHP, 5-4, 4.43 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP, 8-0, 1.59 ERA)

Game 2: Aaron Nola (RHP, 4-4, 3.11 ERA) vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP, 4-3, 3.64 ERA)

Game 3: TBD vs. Blake Snell (LHP, 0-4, 5.46 ERA)

Game 4: TBD vs. Yu Darvish (RHP, 7-3, 3.17 ERA)

The numbers

• Run Differential:
• Phillies: 27
• Padres: 72

• Runs Scored Per Game:
• Phillies: 4.77
• Padres: 4.75

• Runs Allowed Per Game:
• Phillies: 4.39
• Padres: 3.73

Game times and broadcasts

• Thursday, June 23, at 9:40pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680, 94.1 WIP
• Friday, June 24, at 9:40pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680, 94.1 WIP
• Saturday, June 25, at 10:10pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680, 94.1 WIP
• Sunday, June 26, at 4:10pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680, 94.1 WIP

Philly Sports Reports’ Twitter page will provide game coverage throughout the series.