Orbiting the Wild Card: Astros vs. Phillies Series Preview, September 8-10

The Phillies closed out Labor Day with style, shutting out the Atlanta Braves on a clutch home run by Kyle Schwarber and Jesus Luzardo‘s first career shutout, to salvage a split. Now they must pivot quickly to a different type of test, hosting the Houston Astros for a three-game series, with the stakes high for both teams.

This series comes at a critical time for both teams. The Phillies spent the last weekend trading haymakers with the team they’re looking up at in the NL East in a series that was the closest to a playoff atmosphere all season. Now they turn their attention to a team that has nothing to do with the National League playoff picture, but everything to do with October. This Astros squad arrives in Philly in the middle of their own pennant race. They’re clinging to a two-game lead over the Texas Rangers in the AL West, and this series is incredibly important to maintaining that lead.

For the Phils, this series is a chance to ride the wave of momentum from the closeout game against the Braves. For the Astros, every game left on the schedule is incredibly important to them and their playoff aspirations, and their veteran squad knows this far too well.

A Different Kind of Pressure

Even though there is no possibility of pulling even with the Braves on the line to be preoccupied with, it doesn’t mean this series doesn’t carry the same level of pressure.

Even though the series with the Braves ended in a draw, they didn’t lose ground on them, and at this point in the season, this is a good scenario, but they are back to scoreboard watching. Every game moving forward acts as a chance to improve playoff seeding, and this is equally true for both the Phillies and Astros.

The pitching staff will get a look at a lineup that is constructed differently than the others they see in the National League. The Astros are a team that leans on power and has more swing-and-miss up and down the lineup, with one massive game-changer in the middle of the lineup.

Rotation Running on All Cylinders

Coming into this series, the Phillies starting rotation is like a supercar firing on all cylinders, even if they have been out of time a bit at times this season. The new look Andrew Painter starts Game 1 of the series, coming off the best start of his young career, followed by Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 and Zack Wheeler in Game 3.

Sanchez comes into the series with a 2.58 ERA, 207 strikeouts, and his league-leading 16 wins, making his case to be in the NL Cy Young conversation. Wheeler has now pitched back-to-back good starts, so it appears that the hiccups he had faced in August are in the rearview mirror. He has an 11-5 record with a 3.31 ERA, which ballooned after his seven-start skid. With how he pitched against Atlanta on Friday, he has quite a bit to build on in this series, especially against a Houston team that likes to swing for the fences.

While Painter’s season started off as a grind, one that included a return trip to Lehigh Valley to work on mechanics and drop the splitter that was causing him issues, he developed his changeup, which has been one of the keys to his success. His last five starts show his top prospect status — a 3.26 ERA, two wins, 28 strikeouts, and nine walks over 30 1/3 innings. A stark contrast to his early season, when he had control issues and was constantly stung by the big inning, something he still needs to work on, but the turnaround has been a huge part of why the Phils have been coming on strong.

Houston Running Low on Fuel

For the team that has been one of the most prolific playoff teams in the American League over the last decade, this year’s squad has had a different look about it. The Astros will land in Philly with a 73-71 record, clinging to a two-game lead over their interstate rival Texas Rangers in the AL West, a division that has been back and forth all season.

The biggest reason for this inconsistency has been the pitching staff. The rotation has had to lean on names that weren’t part of their plan in the spring. Hayden Wesneski and Hunter Brown are the two prime pitchers in this rotation, while the pitchers that they went into the season with had their hopes hanging on. It’s not the same collection of arms that has carried them regularly into the ALCS over the last decade, which shows with the team being in the red in terms of run differential, something new for any Astros team.

While Houston hasn’t had Carlos Correa‘s bat in the lineup for the majority of the second half, the middle of the lineup remains the same. Yordan Alvarez remains the one hitter on this Astros team that can erase a deficit with one swing. He and Schwarber have many similarities, and between the two, there should be real fireworks coming into the series. Schwarber leads the NL with 43 home runs, and Alvarez is tied with Junior Caminero with 38 home runs for the AL lead. The Astros are still looking for consistent secondary contributors; with Brice Matthews nursing an injury, that task becomes even harder.

The recipe for the Phils is simple in this series: don’t let Alvarez beat you. Make the others step up and earn every win. Reduce the mistakes on the basepaths and make Houston earn everything. The Astros can’t afford to treat September like a formality this year, and they know it.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Tuesday, September 8, 6:40 p.m. ET, TBS, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Wednesday, September 9, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Thursday, September 10, 1:05 p.m. ET, NBC 10, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Andrew Painter (RHP, 3-8, 5.55 ERA) vs. Hayden Wesneski (RHP, 4-1, 3.18 ERA)

Game 2: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 16-5, 2.58 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (RHP, 5-3, 3.31 ERA)

Game 3: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 11-5, 3.31 ERA) vs. TBD

The Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 81-63
  • Astros: 73-71
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: +35
  • Astros: -38
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.46
  • Astros: 4.49
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.22
  • Astros: 4.76

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