Phillies Offseason at a Glance: Who’s Going, Who’s Coming, Lockout

When the Phillies’ season ended with a 6-2 loss to the Braves in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, the whole organization felt the disappointment.

“We’re not happy with the season that we had,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in his end-of-season press conference on Oct. 15. “When we go into a year nowadays, we’re in a position where we’re expecting, and we want to win a World Series and where we would hopefully still be playing [late in Oct.]. So we’re not happy on that.”

Entering what could be a very short winter for baseball, the collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. Owners are expected to lock out the players the next day, freezing most roster moves until a new deal is reached.

That gives Dombrowski less than four weeks to rebuild an offense with open spots at third base and in the outfield and address bullpen issues.

With the start of the general manager meeting in Las Vegas on Tuesday, here’s a brief on what to know ahead of what should be an interesting offseason, for many reasons:

Phillies’ Free Agents

The list of Phillies who have filed for free agency includes Alec Bohm, Luis Arraez, Adolis Garcia, Edmundo Sosa, Jose Alvarado, and Brooks Raley.

Bohm, the third overall pick in 2018, debuted in 2020 and made the 2024 All-Star team, driving in 97 runs in both 2023 and 2024. This year he hit .249 with 15 home runs and 88 RBIs, and the Phillies did not extend him a $23.15 million qualifying offer before the Nov. 2 deadline.

In his favor, Bohm hit .347 with runners in scoring position and drove in around 90 runs a year. The Phillies will miss that if they decide to not bring him back. Against him, Statcast graded his defense at negative 11 outs above average, and playing him at third base could block prospect Aidan Miller.

Arraez, acquired from the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline on Aug. 3, hit .278 with a .678 OPS in 46 games for the Phillies. The three-time NL batting champion has a .316 career average, the best among active players with 3,000 plate appearances, and the Phillies went 27-19 with him. But he rarely walks, hit six home runs, and missed the Wild Card series with a rolled ankle.

Garcia hit .195 with seven home runs in 67 games before a torn lat ended his season in June.

Left-hander Tim Mayza re-signed Oct. 15 on a one-year deal. Dombrowski did not rule anyone out at his end-of-season news conference.

Bryce Harper was much blunter after the Game 3 loss.

“I’d imagine this team is going to look a lot different next year,” Harper said.

The Phillies’ 2026 payroll was projected at about $315 million, $71 million over the $244 million luxury tax threshold. Estimates of 2027 guaranteed commitments run from $216 million to $236.5 million before arbitration raises for Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Jhoan Duran.

Phillies Offseason Shakeup, Potential Targets

The Phils are looking for a massive shakeup. They are in such need of an everyday third baseman and are willing to trade Marsh and Trea Turner to someone who fits the bill, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. With the emergence of top prospect Miller, and the decline in play of Turner, along with his salary considerations and the future of Marsh in arbitration, the Phils are willing to move on from both to get their biggest need filled.

Turner, who will be 34 next season and coming off of a .242 campaign while playing poor defense, has to prove to the Phillies moving forward that he can continue to play his desired spot at shortstop, Dombrowski said at his end-of-season presser.

Marsh was an All-Star starter this past year, hitting .301 with an .829 OPS in the first half. But he was one of the worst players in baseball after the break, hitting just .184 with a .502 OPS. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is best suited now as a platoon option, and is probably more realistic to move than Turner.

Nightengale also reported that both Kyle Schwarber and Harper “are staying put.”

If Dombrowski either moves Turner in the offseason or he is in a new position next season, one of the contingency plans is to look at 31-year-old veteran free agent infielder Ha-Seong Kim to fill that void, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Kim tore a tendon in the middle finger of his right hand last offseason when he slipped on ice. This injury required surgery and limited him to 51 games in 2026.

His defense has always been a strong point, leading to him putting up a bWAR of 5.0 in 2022 and 5.4 in 2023, a season in which he won a Gold Glove while playing three different positions. Injuries have limited him in the past two seasons, but Kim could provide an insurance policy if the defensive improvements that the team needs from Turner aren’t up to team expectations, or if he is moved to acquire a third baseman. Kim would act as a bridge to getting Miller up to speed, while chasing a marquee name at the hot corner.

Japanese phenom Teruaki Sato, a 27-year-old left-handed third baseman from Japan’s Hanshin Tigers, can also close their hole at the hot corner. He won the NPB Triple Crown, hitting .306 with 39 home runs and 106 RBIs, and he has experience in the outfield. He comes through the Japanese posting system; when he is signed, his club collects a posting fee. Contract projections range from five years and $80 million to five years and $110 million.

Sato at third would change the entire infield. Bryson Stott moved from second to third after the Arraez trade, a switch Dombrowski called temporary. A new third baseman would send Stott back to second and make signing Arraez not a realistic option.

In the outfield, the best options for the Phillies are Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki; each received a $23.15 million qualifying offer and has until Nov. 17 to decide. Arozarena hit 25 home runs, had 25 stolen bases, and 5.7 bWAR. Suzuki posted an .841 OPS with 26 home runs and 5.1 bWAR. Signing either would cost the Phillies a draft pick. Projections run from three years and $66 million to five years and $115 million.

The need is real; the Phillies’ outfield ranked second-worst in baseball in WAR, and either option will fill the need for a consistent right-handed bat in the outfield.

Ian Happ, a 32-year-old left fielder and four-time Gold Glove winner, has been linked to the Phillies. He hit .218 with 24 home runs. Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran (.207, 20 home runs) and Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernandez (.267, 16 home runs) have been mentioned as trade possibilities. Both are big swings that would really help the outfield’s production.

The bullpen is also a priority. Dombrowski said the club needs help from the left side. Alvarado had a 5.86 ERA and Raley a 7.94 ERA in 16 games with the Phillies, and both are free agents. The market includes left-handers Adrian Morejon and Alex Vesia, who will be hot commodities.

The Phillies are also reportedly among the teams meeting with Japanese right-hander Shoki Oda, a longer-term pitching option. The 18-year-old right-hander said he planned to skip Japan’s draft and was still taken in the first round by the Yomiuri Giants. His velocity has been reported as high as 98 mph, and he throws a six-pitch mix. He can sign when the international period opens Jan. 15, 2027, if the lockout doesn’t postpone it. Again, the geographical deficiencies won’t help.

The Phillies will also look to acquire a new back-up catcher after cutting ties with Garrett Stubbs. There is a goal in 2027 and beyond to get J.T. Realmuto off his feet more often. A competent new backstop will surely help.

What a Lockout Means For Baseball and the Phillies

The collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. A lockout is the owners’ decision, not a certainty, but is widely expected. The last lockout began Dec. 2, 2021, and lasted 99 days.

Both sides are far apart right now. Owners proposed baseball’s first hard salary cap, $245.3 million, along with a $171.2 million floor. A later proposal would limit free agent contracts to five years and a first-year salary of no more than 15% of the cap, about $36.8 million. The players’ union countered by raising the luxury tax threshold to $300 million, adding a tax on payrolls below $150 million and setting a revenue-sharing floor of $240 million.

For the Phillies, the proposed cap would be very tight.

A lockout would freeze trades and signings for players on 40-man rosters. The non-tender deadline is Nov. 20, and the Winter Meetings, scheduled for Dec. 7-9 in San Diego, are expected to be canceled. Sato’s 45-day posting window runs into mid-December, past the expected start of the lockout, complicating any potential signing. Harper has said he understands both the owners’ and the players’ positions.

November will move fast. General managers meet from Tuesday to Thursday, qualifying offer decisions and the Rule 5 protection deadline arrive Nov. 17, and the non-tender deadline is Nov. 20. Teams and free agents may rush to sign before new salary rules arrive. On Dec. 1, 2021, clubs committed a record $1.4 billion in 27 deals before the last lockout began.

“None of us want to miss games,” Harper said July 3.

Harper also fueled speculation about 2027 when he replied to a TikTok comment about his offseason running from March to October by writing that it would be this year. He did not mention the lockout.

The Phillies will have a lot of decisions to make in what could be two different sprints.

“In some ways they had a hard time deciding if they wanted to make a move at that particular point because they wanted to gather more information,” Dombrowski said. “But as soon as it’s over, it is a rush. You got to be prepared for all type of movements and changes and decisions.”

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