Back to Business: Mets vs. Phillies Series Preview, July 16-19

After one of the most memorable All-Star breaks that Philadelphia has ever had, the Phillies are ready to get back to the business of winning another National League East title and getting back into the playoffs once again, starting at home against the New York Mets.

The Phillies are definitely poised to have a better start to the second half than they did to start the 2026 season, and the numbers prove this won’t be a concern.

A Staff Split Between Jekyll and Hyde

Zack Wheeler closed the first half the way the Phillies needed him to, throwing six shutout innings against the Tigers in his last start before the break and dropping his ERA to 2.13. That kind of form is exactly why Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez are being held back for Monday’s series against the Dodgers instead of pitching against the Mets.

Sanchez put together a first half that broke the Phillies franchise record for consecutive scoreless innings and, at 50⅔ innings, the longest streak by any left-hander in major league history. He took a 144-strikeout, 2.62 ERA line into the break, the third-most strikeouts in baseball.

Jesus Luzardo has been every bit as sharp behind them, finishing the first half at 8-4 with a 3.51 ERA and 136 strikeouts, fourth-most in MLB.

The other side of the staff tells a different story. Aaron Nola allowed 20 home runs across 97 innings in the first half, a major reason his ERA sits at 5.75, and Andrew Painter never found his pre-surgery form before a 7.06 ERA in 65 innings sent him back to Triple-A.

The bullpen has the same split personality. Jhoan Duran carries a 1.52 ERA with 21 saves in 22 chances, and Kerkering has been just as steady at 2.43. But two top left-handers, Jose Alvarado and Tanner Banks, sit at 6.82 and 7.07 ERAs, respectively. Numbers like that would sink most staff.

None of that erases what the top of the rotation did to get the Phillies from 9-19 to a 45-24 mark since Don Mattingly took over. It does mean the group facing the Mets this weekend, and everyone behind them, has to prove the first half wasn’t a two-man show.

The Mets’ Arms are Making their Trade Pitch

The Mets arrive at 40-57 with a rotation that ranked 27th in baseball at the All-Star break and hasn’t shown signs of that changing anytime soon. Christian Scott makes his first start off the injured list to open the series, working back from a hip impingement with a 3.17 ERA and a 2-1 record in his limited look this season. Sean Manaea, the 34-year-old veteran carrying the largest pitching contract in franchise history, follows in game two. Nolan McLean closes it out Sunday as the Mets’ most reliable arm all year, sitting at a 3.52 ERA with 125 strikeouts.

With New York already signaling it will sell before the Aug. 3 deadline, Manaea’s start carries the most outside weight, given he’s owed $25 million next season and any contender scouting pitching depth will be watching a 5.39 ERA since the start of 2025 against the Phillies lineup. Scott and McLean are further from being dealt with team control on their side, but every one of these three outings still shapes how the front office views its rotation beyond this year.

The Blueprint the Phillies Need is Deeper Counts

Beating this Mets team starts with patience at the plate. Since Mattingly took over as manager, the Phillies committed to a more disciplined approach at the plate, cutting their team-wide swing rate by 3.1 percent, more than all but five other clubs in baseball. The shift was deliberate: work deeper into counts, stop giving away free outs on the pitcher’s pitches, and make every starter they face earn his innings. A lineup built on power doesn’t need to abandon that identity to also make pitchers work, and the two aren’t mutually exclusive when the approach sticks.

That patience matters more than ever with the trade deadline bearing down and opposing arms selling themselves to contenders on shortened outings. Working deep counts is exactly how a lineup turns a start into an early trip to the bullpen, and it’s the blueprint the Phillies need against a Mets rotation that ranked 27th in ERA at the break.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Thursday, July 16, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN, 94.1 WIP

Saturday, July 18, 4:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Sunday, July 19, 1:35 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Aaron Nola (RHP, 3-6, 5.75 ERA) vs. Christian Scott (RHP, 2-1, 3.17 ERA)

Game 2: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 8-4, 3.51 ERA) vs. Sean Manaea (LHP, 2-4, 4.56 ERA)

Game 3: Alan Rangel (RHP, 0-2, 4.19 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP, 6-6, 3.52 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 54-43
  • Mets: 40-57
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: -10
  • Mets: -65
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.37
  • Mets: 4.10
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.47
  • Mets: 4.77

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