Back on Track: Marlins vs. Phillies Series Preview, June 15-17

As miserable as their trip to Milwaukee has been, the Phillies made it nearly halfway through June before dropping their first series. Sunday’s loss to the Brewers also marked their first series loss since they traveled out West and dropped two of three to the Padres. Ironically, they went .500 on that roadtrip, just as they have on this one.

But, road trips were never their thing anyways.

The Phillies return home Monday for a six-game stretch over seven days against two NL East opponents, the Marlins and the Mets. 6:40 p.m. on Monday kicks off a three-game set against the Marlins, who sit at 36-36 and 2.5 games below the Phillies, giving The Fish an opportunity to leap them and take second place in the NL East.

In order to maintain their standing, and hopefully make up some ground on the Braves who just dropped two of three to the Mets, the Phillies need to hone in on a few key points.

Ride the Starting Pitcher Wave

This squad have been blessed by excellent starting pitching – at least 60% of the time. With Zack Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, or Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, the Phillies have only dropped a handful of games, including an uncharacteristic four-run outing by Sanchez on Sunday. 

In their upcoming series against the Marlins, the Phils will have Wheeler and Luzardo on the mound for Monday and Tuesday – though Wednesday will pose a challenge as Andrew Painter toes the slab with Sandy Alcantara. Nonetheless, two of these arms have been incredible for the squad, and facing the 20th ranked team in baseball for OPS shouldn’t be difficult.

For Luzardo, the Marlins rank 27th in OPS against lefties while away at .635, though only 16th against lefties in general with an OPS of .709. The other two starters will be in more danger as the Marlins hit righties better on the road rather than in their dome.

Although too many wins have come purely from the success of Phillies starting pitchers, it’s a formula that’s working, and there’s no reason to stop now against one of the weaker offensive teams in the league.

Get the Lefty Outfielders Going

As good as Brandon Marsh has been this season, it’s hard not to acknowledge he’s in a bit of a rut. His three-hit day on Saturday has been the only bright spot in the last six games. Sunday’s 0-4 day brought his batting average down to .174 in his last 25 plate appearances, which has included four games against a right-handed starter.

Moving over to centerfield, the evolution of Justin Crawford has been stunted. He’s been given 11 at-bats in as many games as Marsh because Don Mattingly has lost trust in the center fielder to hit southpaws—as has Dave Dombrowski who acquired Derek Hill.

Luckily for these two slumping lefties, the Marlins are throwing three straight right-handers. Though Crawford has been brutal at the plate these past few months, he’s much more successful against righties, batting .241 with a 79 wRC+. Marsh has been more well-rounded this season, but his numbers against righties remain significantly better, posting a .335 batting average and 143 wRC+. 

Sunday’s stale effort from the entire offense can get washed away quickly by a solid showing from the Phillies dominantly left-handed line-up.

Where’d June Schwarber Go?

Well, statistically, he’s not gone anywhere. In the month of June, Schwarber is hitting .317 with a .914 OPS. However, something feels off. Through 11 games, the slugger has only launched two home runs and hasn’t logged another extra-base hit.

Although we haven’t really seen Schwarber tear up June in a few years, the expectation of June Schwarber is there every year, and this June, the slugging hasn’t arrived. Perhaps it’s because the lefty has re-entered the lead-off role and has tweaked his approach with Kevin Long, but the power needs to return. 

And there’s no better opportunity than three right-handed pitchers showing up to Citizens Bank Park. In 96 at-bats against southpaws, Schwarber has eight home runs and a .281 average. In 156 at-bats against righties, Schwarber has 16 home runs and a .226 average.

There appears to be a trade-off in tools between the dexterities of the opposing pitcher. The Marlins only carry two left-handed pitchers, one of whom has thrown only 11 innings this season. Answer the call, Kyle.

Games Times and Broadcasts

Monday, June 15, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Tuesday, June 16, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Wednesday, June 17, 1:05 p.m. ET, NBC 10, 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 5-1, 2.22 ERA) vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP, 0-1, 6.00 ERA)

Game 2: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 5-4, 4.35 ERA) vs. Tyler Phillips (RHP, 1-1, 1.86 ERA)

Game 3: Andrew Painter (RHP, 1-7, 6.43 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP, 6-4, 4.25 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 38-33
  • Marlins: 41-25
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: -23
  • Marlins: 0
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Philles: 4.01
  • Marlins: 4.31
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.34
  • Marlins: 4.31

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