How past mistakes and poor development leave ‘content’ Phillies with glaring holes as spring training approaches

The Phillies took some swings this offseason. Following a fourth straight season with a higher regular-season win count but a worse postseason finish, the Phils didn’t hear the crack of the bat this winter.

They took shots at a few star free agents — the Japanese phenom right-hander Tatsuya Imai and infielder Bo Bichette. The two signings would’ve changed the dynamic of this Phillies roster. Imai fills a hole in the rotation with elite stuff and brings in a whole new market from the other side of the world, while Bichette finally supplies a right-handed protection bat behind Bryce Harper, something that has plagued the Phils since 2022.

The Phillies failed to land either, with one of the dominos falling in Queens, N.Y.

“It’s a gut punch. I mean, you feel it,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said over Zoom on Tuesday as the team made J.T. Realmuto‘s three-year deal official. “That day, you are very upset… but you have to pick yourself off and shake it off… you need to move forward.”

So, in mid-January, 21 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Clearwater, Fla., the Phillies like where they’re at.

“I think we’re content where we are at this point,” Dombrowski stated.

Really? They’re content with a roster that’s seemingly worse than one that was bounced out by an underperforming Los Angeles Dodgers team in the NLDS last season?

They have to be. The resources are no longer out there to improve at this point. The only plausible free agent still available that the Phils could land is Harrison Bader, whose market is beginning to shatter, and even that feels underwhelming.

The bar to improve was high this offseason. The Phils are a 96-win club with stars all over the field. They have spent the fourth-most money of any team in free agency this offseason and have the third-highest payroll in MLB.

Still, comparing and contrasting, the 2025 roster looks more appealing than what the 2026 roster is shaping up to look like. The only advantage going into this season is that the bullpen made some improvements.

But the lineup is worse, and the rotation includes two cavities.

The Phillies are banking on Justin Crawford to excel in his rookie season in center field. They also need Brandon Marsh to form into an everyday player in left, and for Adolis Garcia to bounce back after two disappointing seasons at the plate over in right. The outfield was a major sticking point in 2025, and a year later, it emerges more sinister. Behind those three are just Johan Rojas and Otto Kemp.

The Phils will also need to muster a solution for the final two spots in the rotation. They have three healthy pitchers guaranteed spots in Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sanchez, seventh-place finisher in Cy Young voting Jesus Luzardo, and Aaron Nola, coming off a career-worst season. With the loss of Ranger Suarez, the hope is that both top prospect Andrew Painter and Taijuan Walker can perform well enough in spring to hold down the fort of spots four and five in the rotation until Zack Wheeler returns.

Painter’s first season following Tommy John surgery last year didn’t go according to plan. In 106.2 innings at Triple-A Lehigh Valley over 22 starts, Painter owned a 5.40 ERA while striking out 111 batters with a 1.55 WHIP. The 22-year-old right-hander will need to rebound in 2026 to regain confidence.

Thankfully, there seems to be some confidence in Wheeler, who continues to recover from the thoracic outlet syndrome he suffered in August.

“[Wheeler’s] throwing… up to 90 feet he has,” Dombrowski said. “He’s doing very well… I believe he’s going to come in again on Thursday and throw again, but yeah, no timetable, but so far the reports have been good.”

The real issues lie beneath Painter and Walker: the farm system. It is a territory that has haunted the Phillies for over a decade. It’s a reason the Phils struck out on the big free agents this offseason.

There are limits to throwing money at a problem. Bichette became the fourth-highest-paid player in baseball with his deal from the New York Mets, and the Dodgers signed the best hitter and reliever on the market. Past financial decisions and development play a role in how a team can spend. The Phillies, who have $82.6 million bottled up between Walker and Nick Castellanos, have their hands tied.

The Phils now have a solid farm, but very little major league talent to join a club in win-now mode. The organization has been extremely hesitant to trade its top three prospects — Painter, Crawford, and infielder Aidan Miller. A way to improve your team without expanding payroll is trade. With teams around the league knowing well the Phils’ reluctance to move on from those three, Philadelphia hasn’t been able to work out a middle ground.

In the late 2000s, the Phillies had homegrown Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Ryan Madson, Carlos Ruiz, and Brett Myers in the majors at the same time, leading to five straight National League East titles, a 2008 World Series championship, back-to-back pennants, the ability to move guys around, and the ability to sign external free agents due to the cheap deals they were on at the time.

In 2026, the only homegrown players who are yet to receive a big extension are Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Orion Kerkering, Rafael Marchan, Otto Kemp, and Johan Rojas. All other Phillies, outside of Aaron Nola, were acquired either through trade or free agency. That’s how the Phillies have stuck themselves in this situation.

A lack of development leads to a lack of flexibility and brings us to today, January 21, 2026. The wind chill is in the high teens to low 20s. There is ice and snow on the ground. We could see over a foot of snow this weekend. And the Phillies, after saying they weren’t going to, seem to be running it back this summer. Manager Rob Thomson pushed back on that narrative on Tuesday.

“We’re going to have three new relievers. We’ve got a new right fielder,” Thomson said. “Crawford’s going to get every chance to play. We’ve probably got a rookie starting in Painter. We’ve got Otto Kemp. So we’re turning over 20 to 25% of our roster. If you think that’s turning it back — or running it back, whatever they’re saying is — yeah, I can’t help it.”

He’s right. The Phillies aren’t running it back, per se. They’re sprinting in the wrong direction.

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