A Chance for a Miracle—Series Preview: Marlins at Phillies, September 23 – 25

It’s September 23, and the Miami Marlins have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention. To be abundantly clear, the odds are beyond slim. They’re hanging onto a single seam. And it’s not the seam of a baseball that is fresh out of the box but more like the one that got thrown over the fence and chewed up by the dog in The Sandlot. According to Baseball Reference, Miami has a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs claims the odds are a mere 0.1%. It would certainly be an uphill battle, but there’s a chance.

Hopefully, though, the Phillies are not going to let that happen.

Nevertheless, it seems like these young, scrappy Marlins are determined to end their season on a high note. The ballclub has won six consecutive games as well as ten out of their last 11 games. Though they’re still four games under the .500 mark, they are only four games back from obtaining the final Wild Card in the National League.

Now in the leadoff role, rookie Jakob Marsee has been thriving offensively since his debut in August, and young backstop Augstin Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat recently, boasting an .886 OPS in his last seven starts.

The Marlins may not be a winning team right now, but they certainly should not be overlooked. With a strong group of young players, they could wriggle their way into the playoff picture if the Phillies do not shut them down. And of course, the Phillies’ magic number to clinch the #2 seed in the playoffs is down to two, and it would be great to check off that box as early as possible.

Last Time They Met

The Phils traveled to Miami amid a very strong run that began against the Braves at the end of August, and there was no slowing down when tasked with facing the Marlins. Game one featured home runs from all three of the Phillies’ outfielders—that day it was Brandon Marsh, Max Kepler, and Harrison Bader—to lead the Phillies to a dominant six-run win, igniting the controversial conversation about Nick Castellanos’ playing time.

The following day, Jesus Luzardo chucked six quality innings and Bryce Harper got the scoring started early with a two-run, first-inning home run, powering the Phillies to a 4-2 win. And in the final game of three, the Phillies were 90 feet away from a ninth inning comeback, but Bryce Harper was unable to drive in the tying run from third, costing the Phils a sweep.

Nonetheless, it was a successful trip down south for the Phils, and they have managed to keep it rolling since.

A Defining Series

The Phillies’ coaches and front officer personnel have a lot of decisions to make over the next few days. Not only do they have to decide how the outfield platoon will be decided, but a pitching rotation also has to be determined. Of course, a lot of this is dependent on whether the Phillies can clinch the first-round bye. It would take a utter collapse to lose out on it, but focusing on each game is still a must.

Manager Rob Thomson has already confirmed that Christopher Sanchez will get the much-deserved start in game one, but the real debate will be centered around who starts game two. Ranger Suarez has certainly had a more consistent season than Jesus Luzardo, but many people think that Luzardo would perform better in a home start while Suarez would be unphased starting on the road.

Statistically, both guys actually have better numbers on the road, so it would really come down to who feels more comfortable and which combination Rob Thomson believes gives the Phillies the highest chance of winning two out of the first three games in the division series.

Suarez struggled in his most recent start against the Diamondbacks on Sunday, as he allowed six runs on eight hits over four innings of work. Luzardo is set to pitch in game two against the Marlins, a team he has had ample success against in the past.

A Big Bat Returns

The Phillies’ offense has stayed afloat in the absence of Trea Turner, but regardless, adding his bat back to an already-potent lineup would give the Phillies a major boost ahead of Red October.

In 587 at-bats this season, Turner has a .305 average and an .815 OPS, currently putting him in line to win the 2025 National League batting title. A significant improvement in his defense at shortstop has been noted this season, as his 16 outs above average ranks him in the 99th percentile among all defenders in MLB.

Turner initially hit the IL on September 8 with a strain of his right hamstring, an injury that has bothered him in years past. Nothing is guaranteed yet, but the latest reports have indicated that Turner could return to the club as early as Thursday, which would give him four regular season games to get back into his routine before the postseason gets underway.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Tuesday, September 23rd, 6:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Wednesday, September 24th, 6:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Thursday, September 25th, 6:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 13-5, 2.66 ERA) vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP, 7-7, 3.57 ERA)

Game 2: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 14-7, 4.08 ERA) vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP, 2-1, 3.21 ERA)

Game 3: TBD vs. Janson Junk (RHP, 6-3, 4.27 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Records
  • Phillies: 92-64
  • Marlins: 76-80
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: 122
  • Marlins: -82
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.85
  • Marlins: 4.44
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.06
  • Marlins: 4.96

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