Take Momentum — Series Preview: Phillies at Rays, May 6-8

The Phillies have been playing some really good baseball as of late. Winners of their last 3 series, they have seemingly broken out of the early-season slump, which had them at 13-13.

Now heading into this series against the Rays, the Phillies begin their 6-game road trip. First in Tampa Bay, then Cleveland.

The question heading into this series for the Phillies isn’t if they can beat the Rays, but which Rays team they’re going to be playing.

One of MLB’s most confusing teams

It has been anything but a normal start to the season for the Rays. Heading into the year, expectations were generally low following the disappointing 2024 campaign. Things began that way as well, with the team’s record falling to 4-6 after a 5-game losing streak. That streak was far from the first they’ve had early in the year. Just a week later, they’d have another losing streak, dropping 4 in a row against the Red Sox and Yankees.

Then they immediately followed up that losing streak with a 5-game winning streak, including sweeping one of baseball’s best teams in the Padres on the road.

Instead of building off that momentum as they traveled home to play the Royals, they got swept and would lose 4 in a row total. If it means anything, they’re riding back-to-back wins over the Yankees on the road heading into this series.

On the mound this series will be Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot. The 3 are some of the headliners on the team with the 7th-best ERA in baseball. Rasmussen especially has been incredible. Through 6 starts, his ERA is just 2.64. That number may be misleading for Rasmussen. His last 2 starts have been shaky. He made it 5.0 innings into each against the Diamondbacks and Royals, allowing 4 and 3 earned runs.

Then, in game 2, it will be the young Rays righty Baz. Along with his unique blonde beard, Baz has had a respectable start to his season with a 3.86 ERA through 6 starts. It was a rough showing in his last outing for Baz as well, giving up 7 earned runs against the Royals in a loss.

Rounding it out for the series is the right-handed Pepiot. It’s been an up-and-down start for Pepiot, boasting a 2-4 record with a 4.23 ERA. His biggest issue in April was the long ball. He allowed at least 1 home run in all but one of his starts and allowed 2 or more in 3 of them. His last 2 outings have each been respectable, allowing a combined 3 earned runs in 10.1 innings against the Padres and Yankees, and most notably, 0 home runs.

The problem for the Rays on the offensive side has been slugging. The team currently sits at 22nd in slugging percentage and 23rd in total home runs.

One of the biggest names to watch in the batter’s box for the Rays has been the 26-year-old Jonathan Aranda. Aranda appears to be having his breakout season, hitting .316 AVG and 5 home runs to start the year. He’s even coming off of a 3-hit day against the Yankees, which included a home run.

Junior Caminero has also helped spark the youth movement in Tampa Bay with his team leading 6 home runs to start the season. Brandon Lowe and Yandy Diaz each provide depth to the lineup as well. Past that, for the Rays, is where the team’s problems have come up. It just isn’t that deep of a lineup.

Stars aligning for the Phillies

The Phillies couldn’t have asked for a better lineup of pitchers heading into this series. It’ll be Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, then Jesus Luzardo. Against one of the more struggling offensive teams in MLB, the Phillies’ 3 best arms are ready to go from George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Wheeler will look to continue upon his nice start to the season with a 3.48 ERA. For Wheels, it’s been the longball that has held him back the most this year. He’s allowed 1 in each of his 7 starts. The hope heading into the series is that the Rays rank 22nd in long balls this year, which could lead to a sort of “get right” game for Wheeler in that regard.

Then the lefty Sanchez gets set to make his 7th start of the year. He’s also had an admirable start to the year with a 3.45 ERA and, importantly, 3.24 on the road.

Then it’s been the guy who has become the best arm in the rotation to start the season. Luzardo has been nothing short of dominant in his 7 starts. His 1.94 ERA has him amongst some of the best in all of baseball.

As for the offensive side for the Phillies, it’s been nothing but green grass on this run of form. The entire outfield, most notably Max Kepler and Johan Rojas, has all been incredible at the plate. As well as Brandon Marsh is now back from injury after a brief rehab stint in AAA.

Bryce Harper, as well, has maybe broken out of his power slump at the dish, hitting his first home run since April 18th on Sunday. Trea Turner has turned his season around as well. After a rocky start, he’s been hitting .352 since April 20th and has reasserted himself as a weapon inside the batter’s box.

All in all, since game 2 of the Cubs series, the entire lineup has been hitting significantly better as they look to carry that momentum down into Florida.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Tuesday, May 6, 7:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Wednesday, May 7, 7:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Thursday, May 8, 7:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB Network, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 2-1, 3.48 ERA) vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP, 1-2, 2.64 ERA)

Game 2: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 3-1, 3.45 ERA) vs. Shane Baz (RHP, 3-1, 3.86 ERA)

Game 3: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 3-0, 1.94 ERA) vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP, 2-4, 4.23 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Records
• Phillies: 19-15
• Rays: 16-18

• Run Differential 
• Phillies: 8
• Rays: 3

• Runs Scored Per Game 
• Phillies: 4.68
• Rays: 3.85

• Runs Allowed Per Game 
• Phillies: 4.44
• Rays 3.76

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