A Division Lead, Aye? Series Preview: Phillies at Blue Jays, September 3 – 4

Yesterday, the red-hot Phillies—winners of seven of their last nine games—had to dig out and dust off their passports, because we’re headed north of the border to kick off a crucial September stretch for the Phillies.

Beginning next Friday, the Phillies begin a critical ten-game stretch against the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets are 7.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead and 0.5 games behind the Braves for a Wild Card spot, so with seven games to go against Philadelphia, the Phillies, and their elite pitching staff could quickly diminish their hopes of playing October baseball. The three games against the Brewers, however, will be the Phillies’ tougher (and more important) series. Right now, the Dodgers, Phillies, and Brewers are battling for the top two spots on the National League leaderboard, aiming to clinch that first-round bye. The Dodgers have two more wins than the 81-win Phillies and Brewers, but with a September schedule featuring the Guardians, Braves, and Padres, they could easily slip out of the top spot.

Given how much the standings have fluctuated over the last few weeks, the winner of the Phillies-Brewers series has a pretty good shot at earning a first-round bye, so many are considering this week the warm-up round for the hometown Phillies.

Before we dive too far into the future, the Phillies have to do their part to stay in the race for first place now, and that starts in Toronto. The Phillies are set to face the Blue Jays for a quick, two-game series.

Last Time They Met

It was the very beginning of May when these two teams last faced off. Bryce Harper came into the series riding a heater, and that did not change, as he notched four RBI in the Phillies’ 10-1 win in game one.

Game two was less exciting. Aaron Nola was mediocre, and the Phillies recorded just seven hits. Bryson Stott hit an RBI double to make things interesting in the bottom of the ninth, but he was a little too late to spark a comeback.

Despite how much time has passed since the Jays and Phils faced off, not too much has changed. The Blue Jays have hovered just below .500 for much of the season, and the Phillies—even though they are not as hot now as they were at the beginning of the season—are still one of the best teams in baseball.

One Hot, One Cold

In a two-game series, notching a series victory leaves little room for error, and the Phillies face an interesting combination of right-handed starters.

Veteran Chris Bassitt is slated to start in game one, and there are two ways this game could go. Of late, Bassitt has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, posting a 5.97 ERA over his last seven starts. He has thrown 37.2 innings in that span but has allowed 11 walks 39 hits, good for a 1.34 WHIP. On the flip side, he could continue his domination against the Phillies. In his career, Bassitt has a 4-0 record with a 1.86 ERA and 26 strikeouts in five appearances, with the most recent coming on May 8. Then, he threw 6.1 innings and allowed just two runs on three hits. So, in essence, someone’s struggles will continue—either the Phillies’ or Bassitt’s.

Game two will feature Bowden Francis, who recently made the transition from long reliever to full-time starter, a righty in the midst of a career-defining season. He has been particularly exceptional over the past three weeks. In his last three starts, Francis has struck out 24 batters in just 22 innings, allowing one earned run on five hits. His most impressive outing of his career came in his most recent start against the Red Sox, where he struck out seven batters and allowed just one hit—a bloop single—over seven innings of work. If that does not impress you alone, then maybe this will: he did all of that in 70 pitches.