Dream Crushers? Series Preview: Phillies at Padres, September 4 – 6

The Phillies may have had a rough weekend series against the Brewers, but this week, they have an opportunity to end the Padres season for the second year in a row. At 65-73, the Padres need to be nearly perfect for the rest of the season if they want to see the playoffs and potentially make it back to the National League Championship for the second year in a row.

If San Diego is swept by the Phillies, they would have to win 16 of their remaining 21 games just to reach 81 wins (.500 winning percentage). Even if they win 20 of their remaining 24 games, including this series vs. the Phillies, the Padres would reach just 85 wins, which does not guarantee them the third Wild Card spot.

In essence, the nail is already in the coffin, and the Phillies just have to tap it in.

Last Time They Met

The Padres came to Philadelphia right after the all-star break, and the Phillies clearly used the time off to their advantage. Despite losing the first game of the series by five runs, they swept the doubleheader the following day. Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker both had solid outings, and the offense was consistent throughout the day.

In a back-and-forth affair on Sunday, the final game of four against the Padres, Kyle Schwarber walked it off for the Phillies in the tenth inning, notching the Phils’ first series win of many in the second half.

Since mid-July, the Phillies have formed a commanding lead in the Wild Card, having been in the first-place spot since the beginning of August. The Padres, on the other hand, have continued to falter, as they have won just 21 of their 44 games since last leaving Philadelphia.

While the Phillies hold a comfortable 5.5-game lead in the Wild Card standings, the Padres trail by 5.5 games and are given a slim 1.9% chance to make the playoffs, per FanGraphs.

A Snell-less Series

This time around, the Phillies caught a massive break. Cy Young candidate Blake Snell, who has a league-leading 2.50 ERA along with 201 strikeouts in 155 innings, will not face the Phillies this series. Snell has been a reliable arm for the Padres all season. He has not allowed a run in his last 16 innings of work, and he has not pitched less than five innings in a start since May 19.

Instead, the Phillies will face seasoned lefty Rich Hill in game one, who, at 43, is the oldest active player in baseball. Hill has struggled mightily of late, but he threw five innings of two-run ball against the Phillies on July 30, one day before being traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego. The Phillies will also face Pedro Avila, a rookie who was recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation, and Michael Wacha, a veteran righty who has posted surprisingly strong numbers the last two seasons.

Here’s how the Phillies are lining up against Rich Hill in game one:

1. Kyle Schwarber LF
2. Trea Turner SS
3. Nick Castellanos RF
4. Bryce Harper DH
5. Alec Bohm 1B
6. J.T. Realmuto C
7. Bryson Stott 2B
8. Christian Pache CF
9. Edmundo Sosa 3B

Game Times and Broadcasts

• Monday, September 4, at 6:40pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
• Tuesday, September 5, at 9:40pm ET on MLB Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
• Wednesday, September 6, at 4:10pm ET on MLB Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Taijuan Walker (RHP, 14-5, 4.05 ERA) vs. Rich Hill (LHP, 7-13, 5.26 ERA)
Game 2: Michael Lorenzen (RHP, 8-8, 3.73 ERA) vs. Pedro Avila (RHP, 0-2, 2.67 ERA)
Game 3: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 10-6, 3.62 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (RHP, 11-2, 2.85 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Record
• Phillies: 75-61
• Padres: 65-73

• Run Differential
• Phillies: 71
• Padres: 62

• Runs Scored Per Game
• Phillies: 4.88
• Padres: 4.5

• Runs Allowed Per Game
• Phillies: 4.36
• Padres: 4.05