Is Pete Alonso Going to Win his Third HR Derby Championship? The PSR Writers Break Down the Derby…
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As we continue an exciting week of All-Star festivities, it is finally time for the highly-anticipated T-Mobile Home Run Derby. The league’s most qualified sluggers are facing off in an eight-player, single-elimination bracket at 8:00pm ET on Monday. As fans gear up for the Derby, the PSR writers decided to answer the most controversial questions and predict how they feel the Derby will play out.
Will Julio Rodriguez ball off in front of his home crowd?
Will Pete Alonso win his third (!) HR Derby championship?
Does rookie Adley Rutschman have what it takes to become the first catcher to win the HR Derby?
Let’s hear what the PSR writers think!
Benjamin Goldstein
Predicted Winner: Pete Alonso
Why?
Alonso is notorious for one thing only, hitting home runs. He has been crowned champion in two of the three derbies he has participated in, as last season he was knocked out of the first round by fellow NL Easter Ronald Acuna, Jr. There is absolutely no way that happens again. I have Alonso winning his third championship, and it will be the only thing the Mets win this season.
Biggest Upset: Randy Arozarena (5) over Adolis Garcia (4)
Randy Arozarena is a big-time player. We saw it in the 2020 MLB Postseason, the World Baseball Classic, and I believe we will see it in the Home Run Derby. The man was built for these kinds of events. And yes, the one-seed will make it out of the first round. I get it, a one-seed has not made it out of the first round in the last five derbies. That changes in 2023.
Colin Daly
Predicted Winner: Julio Rodriguez
Why?
My brain wants me to pick the safe choice, Pete Alonso, but anyone who watched the Home Run Derby in 2022 knows how good of a show young slugger Julio Rodriguez put on in Los Angeles. In the first round alone, Rodriguez blasted 32 home runs, the fourth-most hit in any single round in Derby history. In his sophomore season, Rodriguez has blasted thirteen homers and driven in 49 runs, making his presence vital at the top of the Mariners’ lineup.
If J-Rod could mash 81 home runs as a rookie, his potential in this year’s slugfest is boundless.
Biggest Upset: Adley Rutschman (8) over Luis Robert, Jr. (1)
Why?
The top seed in the Home Run Derby has not advanced past the first round since Orioles’ Mark Trumbo did so in 2016, and I see that pattern continuing here in 2023. Eight-seed Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ young, athletic catcher, will face White Sox’ slugger Luis Robert, Jr. in the very first matchup of the Derby.
Rutschman, one of the strongest and most athletic players in the game, finished twelfth in AL MVP voting in 2022 and has a .806 OPS and 13 home runs in 2023. With a strong build and good endurance, Rutschman is practically built for a competition of this style, and I have a feeling it’s his turn to wow baseball fans with an impressive Home Run Derby showing in Seattle.
Kenny Lutz
Predicted Winner: Adley Rutschman
Why?
Rutschman is one of the best young stars in the league and is competing to be the best catcher in baseball at such a young age. With his raw power and athleticism, he has a great chance to compete for the Home Run Derby championship.
Biggest Upset: Julio Rodriguez (7) over Pete Alonso (2)
Why?
Julio Rodriquez is my bet for the biggest upset over Pete Alonso. Alonso has lots of experience and many wins in the Home Run Derby. Quite frankly, the two-time champ is one of the best competitors we’ve ever seen. However, I feel Rodriquez has the experience now in his second go-around and can give Alonso a first-round exit.
Alex Reich
Predicted Winner: Julio Rodriguez
Why?
I think this is the year Julio shows off at his own ballpark. He has great swing speed, and I think he can conquer any challenge that comes to him. At this point, Rodriguez building off his impressive performance from last year only seems inevitable.
Biggest Upset: Randy Arozarena (5) over Adolis Garcia (4)
Why?
Randy Arozarena has been blasting home runs left and right in 2023 with the Tampa Bay Rays. Often, Arozarena is an underappreciated player in baseball, and I think this is the year he finally gets his well-deserved attention from MLB fans across the country—with a trip to the Home Run Derby finals.
Alexander McCrystal
Predicted Winner: Julio Rodriguez
Why?
Well, experience matters! Julio did the Derby last year and looked incredibly comfortable with the format. The home ballpark factor is a very real thing, and it’s very common to see players show out in their hometown derby.
Biggest Upset: Randy Arozarena (5) over Adolis Garcia (4)
Why?
With Adolis Garcia being the last man named to the Derby, I see Randy Arozarena overtaking him in the first round. Arozarena, a guy who has competed on big stages before, is well-prepared for the derby and is destined to make it far in the competition.
Jordan Hirsh
Predicted Winner: Randy Arozarena
Why?
The Rays practiced hitting long home runs during BP, and I believe that will have a huge benefit on Randy Arozarena’s performance. He also is a player that will take the derby seriously and is coming to win, not just to have fun.
I would also be lying if I said I didn’t want to see him hit his folded arms celebration while spinning the victory chain on Monday night.
Biggest Upset: Adley Rutschman (8) over Luis Robert, Jr. (1)
Why?
I think eight-seed Adley Rutschman will upset one-seed Luis Robert, Jr. A first-seeded player has not made it out of the opening round in five consecutive Home Run Derbies, and with Rutschman’s quick bat and smooth swing, he seems like the perfect guy to keep that trend going.
Watch the 2023 T-Mobile Home Run Derby on ESPN or ESPN2 at 8:00pm ET. Also, be sure to check out the Philly Sports Reports/Phandemic Krew Instagram Live, which will also kickoff at 8:00pm ET.
