We Meet Again: Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Series Preview

The Phillies narrowly avoided one of the worst collapses in franchise history by winning Game 162 on Sunday to clinch the third and final NL Wild Card berth. Now they head to Atlanta to face the team that spent the season chasing in the NL East. The best-of-three Wild Card Series opens on Tuesday at Truist Park, where all three games will be played.

The Phillies finished 88-74, six games behind a Braves team that went 94-68, winning the division for the seventh time in nine seasons and locking up the No. 3 seed in the NL. Atlanta won nine of the 13 meetings against the Phillies this season, including four of the seven in September, with Ronald Acuna Jr. putting on a show in those seven games.

This is the third time in five years the rivals meet in October. The Phillies won the previous two, the 2022 and 2023 NL Division Series, both against Braves teams that won 100 or more games.

Three Series, Three Phillies Wins

Both franchises arrive with substantial October pedigrees. The Braves own four World Series titles and 18 National League pennants, while the Phillies have two titles and eight pennants, the most recent in 2022. When the two have actually met in the postseason, though, that resume has meant very little.

The first meeting was the 1993 NLCS, and to say it was a stunner is an understatement. Atlanta won 104 games and was chasing a third straight World Series trip. The 97-win Phillies took Game 1 4-3 in 10 innings, with Curt Schilling striking out 10 over eight innings. The Phils then got blown out 14-3 and 9-4 as the Braves grabbed a 2-1 series lead. The Phillies answered with three straight wins. Danny Jackson outdueled John Smoltz for a 2-1 win in Game 4. Game 5 went 10 innings after Francisco Cabrera tied it for Atlanta in the ninth, and the Phillies won 4-3 on a clutch Lenny Dykstra home run. Tommy Greene beat Greg Maddux for a 6-3 clincher at Veterans Stadium in Game 6. Schilling won NLCS MVP without a decision, owning a 1.69 ERA with 19 strikeouts in his two starts.

The rematch came 29 years later with a similar origin story. The Braves were 101-win defending World Series champions, and the 87-win Phillies arrived as the sixth seed after sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phils won Game 1 7-6 at Truist Park after building a 7-1 lead and holding on through a three-run Braves ninth, with Nick Castellanos driving in three runs. Atlanta shut the Phillies out 3-0 in Game 2, but the series turned back in Philly. Aaron Nola and a Rhys Hoskins home run and bat spike led a 9-1 win in Game 3, the first home playoff game for the Phillies since 2011. J.T. Realmuto‘s inside-the-park home run, the first by a catcher in postseason history, and homers by Brandon Marsh and Bryce Harper powered an 8-3 clincher in Game 4. The Phillies rode that momentum all the way to the World Series.

The 2023 reboot was even more lopsided in the end, even though Atlanta won 104 games and tied the major league record with 307 home runs. Harper homered off Spencer Strider in a 3-0 Game 1 win, and the Braves’ bats were silent for the first 14 innings of the series. Atlanta then erased a Phillies four-run lead to take Game 2 5-4, ending it on an 8-5-3 double play. Once back home, the Phillies took over. Harper hit two homers in a 10-2 win in Game 3, part of a franchise postseason record six home runs in the game, and Nola picked up the win. Castellanos hit two homers in a 3-1 clincher in Game 4. The Braves scored eight runs in the four games.

There is a bit of deja vu going into this series. The Phillies have been the team with fewer wins in each series, by seven wins in 1993 and 14 in both 2022 and 2023. This year the gap is six, the smallest of the four. Nola is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 15 strikeouts in two postseason starts against Atlanta, both at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are 4-3 all-time in postseason games in Atlanta, but this is the first series between the two played entirely in one ballpark. The format also leaves little room for error for any team, as only seven of the first 24 best-of-three Wild Card Series have gone to a Game 3.

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Phillies Bullpen is the Biggest Concern

If one part of the roster can sink the Phillies in a three-game series, it is the bullpen. They finished with a 4.27 ERA, 20th in the majors, and it got worse late, posting a 5.94 ERA over the last week of the season against the best team in each league. The Phillies optioned Orion Kerkering to Triple-A during the final stretch, and closer Jhoan Duran can only help if the team can get him the ball with a lead.

Getting to Duran is the problem. Rookie right-hander Alex McFarlane has a 2.00 ERA in 18 appearances since his July call-up. Jonathan Bowlan has been a trusted late-inning arm but missed more than a week with a right calf strain, and his status for Game 1 is unclear. The most frustrating one is Jose Alvarado, who has a 5.43 ERA; though he has been far better since the All-Star break, his inconsistent play is a cause for concern.

The rotation shuffle adds pressure. Zack Wheeler had to start the finale on Sunday, so he is out until a potential Game 3. Aaron Nola threw only 21 pitches on short rest on Saturday. Interim manager Don Mattingly has not named a Game 1 starter. Rookie Andrew Painter is on normal rest, and Jesus Luzardo was activated from the injured list on Sunday and threw a clean inning in relief, his first appearance since Sept. 7. Any starter who doesn’t get a start in this series can be used out of the pen, which gives Mattingly legitimate relief options.

Atlanta can close with Robert Suarez, Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, and Didier Fuentes, so the Phillies have little margin for error.

Phillies Offense Needs to Get to Chris Sale in Game 1

The offense comes into this series ice cold, despite the offensive explosion in Game 162. In September, the Phillies were tied for 29th in the majors in batting average at .226 and slugging percentage in with a .356 mark, as well a 29th in runs per game at 3.71. They scored three runs during a four-game losing streak, including a 21-inning scoreless stretch that ended on Saturday, before finally breaking out for seven in the finale.

That burst comes just in time for Chris Sale, who has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season with a 14-9 record, 2.16 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a 0.98 WHIP. He has allowed three runs or fewer in 24 straight starts, a franchise record, with the Atlanta history of pitching success this underscores the type of season he’s had. Sale posted a 2.08 ERA in four starts against the Phillies this season, so hitting coach Kevin Long and the Phillies hitters have to find a way to get to Sale early.

The one crack in his resume is October. Sale has a 7.24 ERA in seven career postseason starts and has gone fewer than five innings in four of them. Kyle Schwarber hit 45 home runs to tie for the major league lead but finished at .231 and cooled off with the rest of the lineup. Bryce Harper finished at .269/.380/.485 with 29 home runs and 87 RBI, and his blast in the finale was only his second homer in 28 games. Trea Turner hit .241. Luis Arraez sprained his left ankle on Thursday, has not swung a bat since, and almost certainly can’t play the field. Mattingly has shuffled the lineup constantly, so getting to Sale early and forcing Atlanta to the bullpen is the best way to steal a win in Game 1.

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Game Times and Broadcasts

Tuesday, September 29, 2:00 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, 94.1 WIP

Wednesday, September 30, 2:00 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, 94.1 WIP

Thursday, October 1 (if necessary), 2:00 or 8:00 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, 94.1 WIP

Projected Pitching Matchups

Game 1: TBD vs. Chris Sale (LHP, 14-9, 2.16 ERA)

Game 2: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 18-7, 2.91 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP, 7-10, 3.99 ERA)

Game 3: TBD vs. TBD

By The Numbers (reg. season)

• Record
  • Phillies: 88-74
  • Braves: 94-68
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: +11
  • Braves: +118
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.40
  • Braves: 4.59
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.31
  • Braves: 3.86

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