Last Call: Brewers vs. Phillies Series Preview, September 22-24

The Phillies return home for a three-game series against the best team in baseball, and there is no bigger measuring stick for this Phillies team before October.

The Phillies are 86-70 and hold the third and final NL Wild Card spot, four games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks with six games left to play. The Brewers come into this series 98-58, the best record in the majors, two games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the race for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is the last meeting between the teams in the regular season, with the Brewers having taken two of three in Milwaukee back in June.

Phillies Bullpen Needs to Step Up

The Phillies optioned Orion Kerkering to Triple-A this weekend after a two-month slide that cost him the club’s trust in high-leverage innings, leaving interim manager Don Mattingly with an even thinner group in front of closer Jhoan Duran down the stretch.

Duran has been exactly what the Phillies needed at the back of the bullpen, posting a 1.76 ERA over 56 1/3 innings and remaining one of the most valuable closers in baseball this season. The main issue for the Phillies has been getting the ball in his hand with a lead. The middle relief group has battled inconsistency all season. With Kerkering now in Lehigh Valley, most of the bridge work will fall on Jose Alvarado and Alex McFarlane.

This series adds another wrinkle: Game 3 is set as a bullpen game likely behind Tim Mayza, meaning the middle relief will be leaned on heavily in that game, and putting pressure on Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler to go deeper in Games 1 and 2 to take pressure off the bullpen. Facing a Brewers lineup that has scored more runs than any team in baseball this season, there is little room for the same late-inning breakdowns that have plagued the Phillies all season.

READ MORE ON THE BULLPEN:

Phillies Will Only Go as Far as the Bullpen Takes Them in October

Phillies Need to Score Runs

Kyle Schwarber has a 6.7 percent home run rate this season and remains the most dangerous power threat in the lineup, but he is hitting .234 to go with it, and the Phillies need more consistent damage in front of and behind him.

Bryce Harper has been the steadiest bat in the lineup, hitting .271 with a .491 slugging percentage. Luis Arraez has provided the boost of consistency that the lineup needed on the roster at .313, though without much power to pair with it. Trea Turner is hitting .241, and Alec Bohm sits at .253, and both need to find better swings against a Brewers pitching staff that has allowed the fewest runs per game of any team in the league, punctuating the need to score runs in advance of the playoffs.

The Brewers starters in this series present real problems. Dustin May has walked more hitters than he would like with a 4.61 ERA, but Logan Henderson has been outstanding, sitting at 13-3 with a 2.35 ERA through his last outing. Kyle Harrison has a 4.23 ERA, but he has been better than his surface numbers would suggest. Getting on base early and often and driving in those runners will be the difference between stumbling into the playoffs and going in making a statement.

Brewers Fighting For Best Record

The Brewers already have the NL Central locked up, but the bigger prize is still in play for them. Their 98-58 record leads all of baseball, with the Dodgers two games back at 96-60. Whichever of those two finishes with the better record gets home-field advantage all the way through the World Series, and the Brewers know their remaining schedule, including this series, is important for playoff positioning as the wild-card race is for the Phillies.

Jacob Misiorowski has anchored the rotation with a 1.86 ERA and 247 strikeouts, though he is not scheduled to pitch in this series, luckily for the Phillies. Jackson Chourio has hit .285 with a .481 slugging percentage; William Contreras has provided steady production all season, batting .271, and Brice Turang has drawn walks at 13.6 percent this season. They are a complete team from top to bottom, and manager Pat Murphy has treated the final stretch of the season like they have something to prove, not just a team resting its starters and playing out the schedule.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Tuesday, September 22, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Wednesday, September 23, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Thursday, September 24, 6:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Projected Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 13-5, 2.99 ERA) vs. Dustin May (RHP, 7-9, 4.61 ERA)

Game 2: Aaron Nola (RHP, 7-10, 4.49 ERA) vs. Logan Henderson (RHP, 13-3, 2.35 ERA)

Game 3: TBD vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP, 10-5, 4.23 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 86-70
  • Brewers: 98-58
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: +29
  • Brewers: +202
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.47
  • Brewers: 5.14
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.28
  • Brewers: 3.85

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