Flushing Out the Wild Card: Phillies vs. Mets Series Preview, September 17-20

The Phillies head to Queens in their final road series of the regular season for a four-game series against a New York Mets team with nothing left to play for, and they need every one of them.

The Phillies have lost eight of their last 13; they watched the Braves pull away in the NL East and lost Jesus Luzardo for the rest of the rest of the regular season, all within a week. The wild card race is the whole season now. The Phils hold a one-game advantage over the San Diego Padres for the second spot and are a half game back of the Chicago Cubs for the top spot.

With the Mets being eliminated earlier in the week, they can play spoiler to the Phils, with the Phils leading the season series 5-4.

The Pitching Staff Needs Jesus

The Phillies placed Luzardo on the 15-day injured list on Tuesday with left shoulder stiffness, and he is not eligible to return until Sept. 27. He is done for the regular season, but does so with incredible stats, and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for a couple of months now.

The Phillies have won 18 of his last 21 starts, a number that punctuates what is missing from this rotation more than just the strikeouts. He has been a major reason the Phillies stayed afloat while the rest of the team found its footing all season long.

Aaron Nola is starting the series with a streak of nine straight solid starts. He has turned it around and is pitching incredibly well lately; even in losses, he is fighting and throwing the ball well. He also pitches well against the Mets, with a career ERA of 3.46 in 32 starts against them.

Games two and three are a bit of an unknown because one of the games will be a bullpen game and one will be a start for Andrew Painter. Don Mattingly has been waiting to see how taxed the bullpen is up to Game 1 to make the decision. The Phils will have to lean on Tim Mayza, Tanner Banks, Kyle Backhus and Chase Shugart to eat innings in the bullpen game, a group that has looked thin and tired all September.

Cristopher Sanchez is closing out the series, looking to turn around his last two mediocre starts. He has been working on his mechanics to try and pinpoint the reasoning for his last two outings, so he can carry this momentum into October.

Cashing In With Runners On

Four games against a last-place team with a battered pitching staff should bring scoring runs, but the fact that it’s the Mets with a chance to spoil the Phillies’ party should raise some concern. The Phils can clinch a playoff berth in Flushing this weekend, and the Mets will do everything in their power to make sure that doesn’t happen.

To do this, the Phillies need to start hitting better with runners in scoring position. In the Atlanta series, the Phillies’ situation with runners in scoring position came to a head. They had many chances in the first game against Chris Sale, but had many chances to add on but never did, and this Mets series is a good time to build momentum back, as the offense had in August.

The Mets starting pitchers they will be sending out are all pitching well coming into this series, with ERAs in the mid-threes and a track record against the Phils. This is a good test for the offense to get themselves into playoff form before October arrives.

Kyle Schwarber has been powering the offense, but they need to put runners on base. The fact that he has 45 home runs and 95 RBI shows that the hitters in front of him aren’t getting on base so he can inflict maximum damage, though part of this is due to him being a leadoff hitter as well; when he comes to bat later in the game, he needs runners to drive in. Luis Arraez has been hitting well, but needs to continue to hit the ball hard. Bryce Harper stepped up in August, and with the last 10 games of the regular season to go, he needs to continue this. Top to bottom, the Phillies need to hit better in clutch situations.

Where It All Went Wrong in Queens

The Mets have been bad all season; they started bad, as did the Phillies. The Mets had a 12-game losing streak, and at that time the only competition that the Mets and Phillies had was for baseball’s worst record, something both have owned this season. Both teams fired their managers; when Rob Thomson was relieved of duty and Mattingly took over, the team started winning. For the Mets, when Carlos Mendoza was fired and Andy Green took over, the losing continued, which was the point where the team’s fates went in different directions. This is despite the Mets’ payroll being the highest in baseball without deferred money. The expectations of this team were not missing October for two seasons in a row. And here they are.

They are a considerably tougher team than they were at the start of the season. The young players that replaced the veterans that were moved at the deadline have played considerably better than the players they replaced and have played with energy, and the Mets have been much better. The fact, though, that they didn’t find any footing until August sunk them and has their front office looking for answers.

A team with nothing left to play for is a dangerous one, especially when those teams are rivals. The Phils could clinch a playoff spot in this series, in Queens, in front of a Mets team that would love nothing more than to be the reason it doesn’t happen.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Thursday, September 17, 7:15 p.m. ET, FOX, 94.1 WIP

Friday, September 18, 7:15 p.m. ET, Apple TV, 94.1 WIP

Saturday, September 19, 4:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Sunday, September 20, 1:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 1210 WPHT

Projected Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Aaron Nola (RHP, 6-10, 4.69 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP, 11-9, 3.24 ERA)

Game 2: TBD vs. Zac Thornton (LHP, 4-5, 3.44 ERA)

Game 3: Andrew Painter (RHP, 3-9, 5.54 ERA) vs. Christian Scott (RHP, 4-5, 3.76 ERA)

Game 4: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 16-5, 2.79 ERA) vs. Jonah Tong (RHP, 2-1, 3.43 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 84-68
  • Mets: 69-83
    
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: +36
  • Mets: -42
    
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.46
  • Mets: 4.27
    
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.22
  • Mets: 4.55

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