October Appetizer: Braves vs. Phillies Series Preview, September 4-7

The Phillies head home to begin what is arguably the most important series of the season, facing the division-leading rivals, the Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies are coming off the last West Coast trip of the season that ended an electric month of August. They went 21-7 in the month and began September picking up a series win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Phillies had a fairly successful trip; yes, they lost the opening series to the Seattle Mariners and were shut out to end the trip Wednesday against Arizona. However, those were the only two hiccups; otherwise, they performed very well, leading to a 6-3 trip.

It was more evidence of what led the Phillies to have the best month of August in the MLB. The recipe for success is to pitch well, get on base at a high frequency, and at some point your offense will take advantage of guys on base. It’s no secret that the reason the three Phillies losses during the road trip were caused by a lapse in that offensive strategy or struggles with the starting pitching.

Now, the attention is turned to possibly flipping the NL East.

Early October Battle

The momentum the Phillies have built heading into this series certainly gives fans confidence, but it isn’t what makes these four games against Atlanta so important. The Phillies could sweep the Braves and still go cold in October, or get swept and still find a way to heat up when the postseason begins. That’s baseball. What does matter, however, is what these four games could mean for the National League East.

The Phillies entered the season determined to win their third consecutive division title, but Atlanta has held control of the NL East for much of the season. Now, after a scorching month of August from Philadelphia, the gap between the two teams has shrunk to just four games.

That makes this weekend’s series about far more than momentum. It’s about control of the division.

With four games against Atlanta, the Phillies have a massive opportunity to change the complexion of the NL East race. If the Phillies take advantage of their momentum and win three of four, or even sweep, the division becomes a foot race with Philadelphia a step ahead. If Atlanta comes in and beats up on the Phillies, we could very well be looking at a checkered flag.

That’s what makes this series so important. The Phillies aren’t playing for October momentum — they’re playing for position. Every game matters at this point in the season, but four games against the team directly ahead of them in the division can change everything. The Phillies have spent August closing the gap. Now, they have four games to potentially erase it.

Shake Off The Punch Offense

The offense enters the series in need of a small jolt. They struggled to close out the Arizona series, with only three hits and no runs, two of the hits coming from Bryan De La Cruz.

The thing is, that happens; bad games are bound to show up over 162. What the lineup needs to do is wake themselves up and prevent a strong Braves rotation from knocking them into a cold streak. Scenarios like that have happened in the past, which makes it a clear question heading into the series, even if there is confidence currently in the offense being able to turn it back around quickly.

The biggest key in why the Phillies were so successful throughout the month of August was because of the offense. They totally switched their game, striking out way less, drawing more walks, taking advantage of mistakes and clutch opportunities. And while certain players like Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, or Bryson Stott were certainly the hottest bats in the lineup, the whole one-through-nine produced, and that is what will make a team dangerous in October.

The 4 Aces?

Of course the offense was the biggest key in making the Phillies a dominant and dangerous team in August, but don’t forget what the starting rotation did. It was greatly bolstered by the success of Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter, and now August NL Pitcher of the Month Jesus Luzardo.

It was greatly needed for the Phillies to get such a successful stretch of performances out of those four. For this Braves series, the Phillies send Sanchez, Luzardo, Nola, and Zack Wheeler. Three starters who showed ace-like abilities in August, plus Wheeler, who, while, yes, struggled in August, is coming off an encouraging six-inning, one-run start against the Los Angeles Angels.

The Phillies have had the chance to battle against potential playoff teams throughout August and into September, like Seattle, Arizona, and Miami. However, this Braves lineup is an actual true playoff contender, with no question that Atlanta will be celebrating a postseason birth at some point this month. A great litmus test for this staff to get the blood pressure of October to pump, a pressure they perform very well in.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Friday, September 4, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Saturday, September 5, 6:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Sunday, September 6, 1:10 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock, 94.1 WIP

Monday, September 7, 1:05 p.m. ET, NBC 10, 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 16-4, 2.52 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (LHP, 13-9, 2.06 ERA)

Game 2: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 11-5, 3.31 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (LHP, 8-8, 3.05 ERA)

Game 3: Aaron Nola (RHP, 6-10, 4.93 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP, 5-10, 4.25 ERA)

Game 4: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 13-5, 3.02 ERA) vs. Bryce Elder (RHP, 8-8, 4.11 ERA)

The Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 79-61
  • Braves: 83-57

• Run Differential
  • Phillies: +36
  • Braves: +118

• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.51
  • Braves: 4.66

• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.25
  • Braves: 3.82

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