Queen City Reset: Phillies at Reds Series Preview, July 7-9

With just two series to go until the break for the MLB All-Star Game, the Philadelphia Phillies have not gotten off on a good note on their nine-game road trip after dropping a series to the Kansas City Royals, the worst team in all of baseball.

The Phillies picked up a 6-1 victory in the opener of the series before delivering a quiet, disappointing performance in Game 2 and dropping the rubber match in a 15-1 blowout behind Cristopher Sanchez‘s worst start of the season.

The offense was embarrassing for nearly the entire series, with the pitching staff not really doing much better. Still, fortunately for the Phillies, they’re heading back east to take on another team that sits last in their division, the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been one of the more disappointing teams in baseball this season, as in the first half of the year, they’ve failed to capitalize on their postseason berth last year.

This season, the Reds’ offense has struggled mightily, ranking bottom-ten in runs scored, second-worst in hits, and third-most strikeouts by any team this year. It’s been a rough go for the Reds, but they’ve managed to be just seven games out of a Wild Card spot, and like last season, they’ll need a second-half push to get them back into the playoffs. A three-game series with the Phillies could be a tipping point for this Reds squad as we rev up for the All-Star break.

Lefties Need to Get Back to Normal

The major issue in the Phillies’ most recent series loss against the Royals was the inability of the top guys to produce against Kansas City, especially the lefties. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh all had poor outings in KC, going a combined 5-for-32 or .156 average, with 14 strikeouts and not one of those hits being an extra-base hit. The worst part of that stat is that three of those hits came from Schwarber in the opener.

The Phillies posted three combined runs in the final two games against the Royals, with their top guys coming up small, at-bat after at-bat, essentially making it seem as though the Phillies had no chance to win those games.

Now it’s not only on the top stars to produce, as the bottom and middle of the order did the heavy lifting for the majority of the series, but when your three offensive All-Stars hit .150 during a series, odds are you’re not winning said series. Schwarber hasn’t homered in over a week, Harper’s OPS is back down to under .900, and Marsh’s average is down to .305.

The All-Stars need to show up and not pack it in before they get back to Philly for the celebration and help their team pull out a few wins before they go on break. Following one left-handed starter, they face two righties in a row, so the pressure will be on, especially in those games, to get back to their good swinging ways.

Three Tough Starters For Cincy

While the Reds’ lineup may not be able to hit well and consistently, they sure can toss a pitcher or two at you. The group is led by first-time All-Star Chase Burns, who, after Sanchez’s most recent start, may have moved up a slot in the NL Cy Young rankings.

Burns is 10-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his second year in the big leagues, being the clear MVP of the Reds squad this season. He’s gone at least five innings in every start this season with 116 strikeouts over 97.2 innings pitched. The former No. 2 pick has well established himself as the game’s next top pitcher, and looks to repeat his success from May when he tossed six innings of one-run ball in the Reds’ 4-1 victory over the Phils in Philadelphia.

As for the other two Reds starters, the Phillies will see one lefty and one righty, the lefty being Andrew Abbott and the righty Brady Singer. Abbott, a former All-Star, has struggled to limit his runs this year and pick up strikeouts compared to last season, resulting in a 3.88 ERA over his 18 appearances. His matchups with the Phillies have been up-and-down, as he’s struggled to stay in long for some and has made it to the eighth inning in others.

Then there’s Singer, who’s been the definition of up-and-down during his time in the league. Once a 4.5 WAR player for the Royals who’s later seasons struggles got him shipped off to Cincinnati. In Cincy, his time has been meh, with lots of innings of work, but never really posting a good enough season like his 2022 campaign. Singer has faced the Phillies twice, one start awful for him, the other great. Once again, the Phillies will go lefty-heavy, so we’ll see what version of Singer we get Thursday evening.

Who Will Fill the Fifth Starter Spot?

The biggest question still to be answered from the Phillies for this series is who will fill the fifth starter spot for Wednesday night’s matchup vs Bruns. Andrew Painter was pulled out of it back in June after several struggling outings, and Alan Rangel has filled in for Painter along with bullpen help over the past few starts.

However, Rangel was sent down, and while it’s very likely he’ll be called back up to make that start in Cincinnati, the bullpen has continued to take multiple beatings over the past few weeks, pitching many innings, being stretched out, and working towards their limits.

A lot has been asked of this group over the past few weeks, with many starts from the Phillies brass going way too short over the past few weeks. Far too otfen has guys like Orion Kerkering and Jose Alvarado pitched in the sixth and seventh innings due to starters being done after five or fewer innings.

Giving them a nice All-Star will be monumental for this group as they ramp up for the huge second half of the year. This spot start will be the final big ask out of this group, who need to be ready to lock in against a tough stretch of opponents right when the Phillies get back to play following the All-Star Game.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Tuesday, July 7, 7:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Wednesday, July 8, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN App, 94.1 WIP

Thursday, July 9, 7:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 8-1, 2.36 ERA) vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP, 5-4, 3.88 ERA)

Game 2: TBD vs. Chase Burns (RHP, 10-1, 2.40 ERA)

Game 3: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 7-4, 3.75 ERA) vs. Brady Singer (RHP, 3-8, 5.03 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 50-41
  • Reds: 41-48
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: -7
  • Reds: -60
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.47
  • Reds: 4.18
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.39
  • Reds: 4.85

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