Interstate Stress Test: Phillies vs. Pirates Series Preview, May 15-17

The Phillies close out their road trip in Pittsburgh this weekend, and it won’t be easy.

Coming off a fifth straight series win in Boston, the Phils head into PNC Park sitting at 21-23, still two games below .500 and searching for consistency. Under interim manager Don Mattingly, the Phillies have played better baseball. But a 21-23 record doesn’t lie. And the Pittsburgh Pirates, at 24-20 and quietly one of the biggest surprises in the National League, are exactly the kind of opponent that will expose a team still figuring itself out, as are the Phils right now.

The Phillies need a strong weekend. They will have to earn it against this Pirates squad.

Nola Needs to Show Up

The Phillies hand the ball to Aaron Nola to open this series, and that comes with legitimate anxiety.

Nola enters Friday’s start at PNC Park with a 5.14 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts over 42 innings. He was tagged at a career-worst 6.01 ERA across 17 starts last season, and while 2026 started with some promise, his first few outings showed flashes of his better stuff; he hasn’t been able to string together consistent starts. In his last six outings, he’s struck out more than five batters just once. He has given up one run or fewer only twice. His home run problem persists. The curveball is still a swing-and-miss weapon, but hitters are teeing off on everything else.

The opponent on Friday only adds to the challenge. Braxton Ashcraft has been one of the bigger stories in Pittsburgh this season. The 26-year-old righty, in his first full season as a major league starter, has a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, and has logged multiple quality starts. He has held opposing lineups to a .214 batting average. He has been durable, sharp, and poised. If Nola struggles early and Ashcraft cruises, the Phillies could find themselves in a hole to start the series.

Nola has the arsenal to be effective. He has the experience, over 1,900 career strikeouts, and more than a decade in this rotation. But that hasn’t really shown in the last couple of seasons consistently, and Friday is another chance for him to either turn the corner or continue to struggle.

Pittsburgh Is Actually Legit

It’s been easy to overlook the Pirates. They play in a mid-market city, get no national attention, and aren’t supposed to be competing in 2026. At 24-20, they’ve made themselves possible to overlook.

Their rotation is young and genuinely good. Paul Skenes sits at a 1.98 ERA through eight starts, already the reigning ERA champion after finishing 2025 at 1.97, the first sub-2.00 ERA from a starting pitcher since Justin Verlander in 2022. Braxton is a breakout candidate, and Bubba Chandler, the former Clemson two-sport commit who turned down college football to pursue pitching, takes the ball on Saturday at 1-4 with a 4.62 ERA but with the kind of raw stuff that shows that he has the goods, a fastball that touches triple digits, a devastating slider, a plus changeup, That can make life miserable for any lineup on any given night.

Their lineup has quietly clicked, too. Oneil Cruz is on a four-game hitting streak after going 8-for-18 in that stretch. Ryan O’Hearn, who hit 14 home runs last season, already has seven this year and is slashing .299/.375/.474 over 43 games. Nick Gonzales is hitting .315 with 19 RBI. The addition of Brandon Lowe has transformed the middle of the order, making it dangerous.

However, Kyle Schwarber is on a heater at the moment, and the short porch at PNC Park will look tempting to him. This isn’t a team the Phillies should overlook. It’s the fourth-place team in the NL Central, sitting four games out of first, and they play as they belong in the mix.

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Sunday’s Main Event: Wheeler vs. Skenes

Sunday’s finale may be the best pitching matchup of the Phillies’ entire season.

Zack Wheeler came back from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery to open 2026 on the injured list. He missed the start of the year, spent several weeks rehabbing in the minors, and finally made his first MLB start of the season in late April. He has been working his way back into top form since. Through four starts, his ERA sits at 2.55, and the stuff looks more like the Wheeler of old with every outing.

Standing across from him will be Skenes. In two seasons, Skenes has already made the case as one of the best in baseball. He won NL Rookie of the Year in 2024, finished third in Cy Young voting that year, won the ERA title outright in 2025 with a 1.97 ERA and 216 strikeouts, and enters Sunday at 5-2 with a 1.98 ERA in 2026. He is 23 years old and only getting better. The Phillies saw him against Pittsburgh last season and know exactly what he brings: high-90s four-seam fastball, plus breaking ball, elite command, and the composure of a veteran.

This is what Sunday afternoon baseball should look like. Wheeler, trying to come back to form after a serious surgery, against the kid who may end up as one of the best pitchers of his generation. This will indeed be must-see TV.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Friday, May 15, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94 WIP

Saturday, May 16, 4:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94 WIP

Sunday, May 17, 1:35 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94 WIP

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Aaron Nola (RHP, 2-3, 5.14 ERA) vs. Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, 2-2, 2.77 ERA)

Game 2: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 4-2, 2.94 ERA) vs. Bubba Chandler (RHP, 1-4, 4.62 ERA)

Game 3: Zack Wheeler (RHP, 2-0, 2.55 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (RHP, 5-2, 2.36 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Record
  • Phillies: 21-23
  • Pirates: 24-20

• Run Differential
  • Phillies: -31
  • Pirates: +32

• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.00
  • Pirates: 5.00

• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.70
  • Pirates: 4.27

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