The Achilles Heel of Bryce Harper’s ‘Not Elite’ Tour

At the beginning of the offseason, the biggest talking point surrounding the Phillies was the fact that President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski questioned whether Bryce Harper could return to his elite ability. Now the question was not one to ask out loud, but it certainly was a valid one to ask of a 33-year-old who has started to have nagging injuries during the season and produced one of, probably, the worst seasons of his Phillies tenure. Dombrowski asked the question, but did not do a satisfactory job helping his franchise player by only adding Adolis Garcia to protect Harper in the lineup.

Now, while Harper, being asked on Sunday about whether the Dombrowski statement motivated him, said it did not really. However, anyone can go back to the video of Harper earlier in the offseason, taking batting practice while wearing a t-shirt that said on the front, ‘not elite.’ Yeah, it didn’t motivate him at all.

It definitely affected fans, thinking that Harper is going to come in and have a monster season as a revenge tour for being questioned about his elitism. And I would no doubt love it if Harper does that, as much as the next guy. However, I think there is an Achilles heel that could turn this alleged aggressive revenge tour scorch the earth season of Harper’s into a potentially worse campaign compared to last year.

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It is no secret that the biggest issue for Harper last season was the fact that he got no pitches to hit. He got a horrendous 43% of pitches in the strike zone. This was mainly caused by the fact that the No. 4 hitter protecting Harper was a mixture of Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, or J.T. Realmuto. Those three at the No. 4 spot posted a .571, .651, and .683 OPS, respectively. To say that is not good for a trio that combined to be the No. 4 hitter in 120/162 games is the biggest understatement one could make about this team. What those putrid numbers behind Harper led to, on top of the league-low zone percentage, was his highest chase rate since 2022, at 35.6%.

This gets to my concern, the Phillies don’t have better options behind Harper this year compared to last. Sure, you have Adolis Garcia now instead of Castellanos, but in most offensive categories last year, Castellanos outperformed Garcia, so at best, he turns into a ‘I’ll believe it when I see it.’ There’s no reason for pitchers this year not to do what they did last year; in fact, it could be argued that they should throw an even lower number of in-zone pitches. But there are solutions to this problem.

The most clear answer for Harper is that he has to chase less. While he is a showman, the level of balls that Harper gets thrown, it would be incredibly beneficial for Harper to just leave the bat on his shoulder and take the walks. While that doesn’t really solve the issue of how well the No. 4 hitters are going to perform behind Harper, it does make Harper’s stats better, which is always nice, and it also would more than likely be easier for these No. 4 hitters to hit well with one less out and one extra guy on base. Also, the more Harper draws walks by not swinging at the bad pitches, the more likely many pitchers are going to try to get pitches in the zone. And those are pitches Harper will do damage to.

Another way the issue can be solved is by Rob Thomson putting Harper somewhere else in the lineup to give him a better protector behind him. The obvious spot to switch Harper to is the No. 2 slot, behind Trea Turner, and behind Harper, put Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber, coming off a career year, is not the hitter pitchers are going to want to add baserunners for, even with the likelihood that he also wouldn’t get as many pitches to hit. Still, it seems safer to just throw to Harper. However, throwing to him is still super dangerous for opposing pitchers. Now that’s just one way to switch the lineup, it’s not the only, but it’s a plausible way to switch those top 3s.

The 3 hitters that got talked about previously for the No. 4 spot in the lineup are clearly not the best choices for that spot. However, they were clearly the hitters that Thomson had the most trust in, and Garcia will slide into that spot Castellanos had there in that trust. But what Thomson could do is throw different players who could provide value behind Harper. For example, Brandon Marsh was one of the most productive hitters after the month of April against right-handed pitching. At least against righties, you could have a solution there. You could try rookie Justin Crawford, who might not strategically fit best in the 4 spot, but his contact ability could offer a consistency that at least gives Harper more pitches to hit. Thomson has taken risks with the lineup in the past, and several of them have worked out. Just look at when Kyle Schwarber was in the leadoff spot.

In truth, Harper is at a stage in his career where questions of his elite ability are valid, but he’s Bryce Harper; he can easily bounce back and become elite again. This is an Achilles heel, which means it’s not an automatic thing to cause problems. It could, but it might not. Hopefully, we see elite Bryce Harper once again, and that will be very important in the Phillies’ quest for a World Series in 2026.

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