A Chance to Prove it Wasn’t a Fluke: Eagles-Commanders Week 16 Preview

Saturday is the first game against the Commanders this season, and if you are only looking at the standings, it’ll look like this is another layup for the Eagles, but history tells us that the Commanders will do whatever they can to bring it to the Eagles.

This is a division game, on the road, on Saturday, with a team that still treats playing Philly like their Super Bowl, even while their season is already cooked. Washington is in that weird place of being well out of contention at 4-10, they’re too far back to land a top-three pick, with the 2-12 teams controlling the No. 1 conversation and several 3-11 teams lurking behind them. So they will be playing for pride, and you know they’d love to get some revenge for last year’s NFC Championship game.

With Jayden Daniels shut down for the rest of the season, and Marcus Mariota is the guy, Vic Fangio has a little less to game plan for.

Washington’s Offense Without Daniels

Washington didn’t just lose a quarterback early on this season; they lost the one piece that forced defenses to play honestly since Daniels’ legs and off-script chaos made even broken plays feel like daggers. With Mariota, the idea is simpler, and it shows up in watching video of the offense and how the defense plays against him. The pass rush can pin back their ears and go after him in passing downs, something you’d never do with Daniels under center, and with Laremy Tunsil ruled out for the game, the path is even easier for Mariota.

Against the Giants, Washington leaned hard into a run-heavy plan, threw only 19 passes, and basically asked Mariota to hit a couple of chunk throws off play action while the backs handled the dirty work. This is a bit of a concern for the Eagles on defense. They are currently ranked 22nd in the league against the run, giving up 125 yards on the ground per game. This will only be a tough task with Jalen Carter ruled out for Saturday’s contest. They will likely rely on the running game and use the passing game as a change of pace.

That can function for a week, especially when special teams flips the field, but it also shrinks the playbook in a way that will give Fangio and the defense a chance to key in on the backs.

Even in the win against the Giants, against one of the most porous defenses in the NFL this season, Washington went 3-for-11 on third down and kept putting itself behind schedule, which is something that you can’t do against the Eagles’ defensive backs and expect to upset them.

When the offense looks overmatched, it’s usually because pressure forces the quarterback into survival mode, and once that happens, you get a lot of empty yards and not enough real answers.

That’s the target for Vic Fangio and the Eagles — make Mariota live in third-and-long, force him to win from the pocket over and over.

Can the Eagles Offense Keep The Momentum Going?

This is not a “walk in and score whenever you want” defense, even if the raw points allowed number looks ugly.

Washington is giving up 26.8 points per game, and that is the kind of stat that makes you think this will be a confidence booster for Jalen Hurts and the offensive unit, but the matchup still demands discipline because they can pressure, and with the Eagles up and down offensive line play, the Commanders will absolutely take risks and disguise blitzes and do what they can to get Hurts out of the pocket, where he has struggles mightily this season.

For the Eagles, the answer should start with establishing Saquon Barkley and the running game early. Saquon’s recovery from the stinger this week and his readiness are paramount to the Eagles controlling the clock on offense and the game. All signs in the injury report point to him being ready to hit the ground running.

The passing game is where the leverage sits, but it has to be earned. Not having Lane Johnson again on Saturday will put pressure on the offensive line and Hurts, but this is Fred Johnson‘s chance to step up and show that he

If Washington loads the box and plays the “prove you can throw” game, Hurts has to take the easy completions early, then let A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith punish them when the safeties start creeping. We have to be realistic that we’re not going to get too many accurate passes of 30+ yards this season, so using timing routes and getting the ball into the hands of Dallas Goedert is going to be huge in this game.

If Washington has any desire to shock the Eagles, they can’t allow their defense to be on the field for extended periods of time, so this is Kevin Patullo’s chance to show that last week wasn’t a fluke against a team that is more interested in Cancun than winning football games.

The Way the Eagles Prove They’ve Turned the Page

If you want a clean win, the formula is boring, and boring is good.

Win early downs on both sides, avoid the one or two brutal turnovers that turn a 10-point game into a dumb fourth quarter, and make Washington chase points with a quarterback they did not plan to feature in December. Don’t let Jacory Croskey-Merritt or Chris Rodriguez Jr. get rolling, which opens up the passing game. We’d rather have Mariota throwing desperation passes late in the game to Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel with the DBs playing with help over the top.

The Eagles’ defense should treat this like a no-explosives game, because Washington’s best Mariota moments have come from chunk plays that show up when you lose leverage, blow a tackle, or let a scramble turn into a backyard drill. Giving Mariota time to improvise plays will not end well, so the pass rush must have a good game to keep Mariota in fast decision mode.

Second, the Eagles’ offense has to finish drives.

Washington’s defense numbers suggest they will give up some chunk plays, but they also bring enough pressure to force mistakes, so the offense can’t settle for lazy drives and the same old play calling that we saw in the bad losses this season. They also can’t fall back into the habit of playing red zone football, where you run into a wall twice and hope for a miracle on third down. The formula of getting the ball to Goedart has been working so well; let’s keep going with what is working.

Third, dictate the game. Don’t let the idea enter their heads that they have a chance.

Washington just snapped an eight-game losing streak with special teams juice and a run-heavy plan, and that’s exactly how a massive underdog tries to drag you into the mud, because that’s the only chance they have to win. Drag the Eagles in the mud and hope force the Eagles into errors.

If the Eagles play clean, they win. If they play sloppily, if they get predictable on offense, if they try to force things, you give a 4-10 team a reason to believe, and you already know how that movie ends in the NFC East.

This can be the first step to building confidence for January, not just for the players, but for the fans, who have had enough of lackluster offense this season. A loss to the Commanders could be disastrous for the confidence of the team, and the stands as well.

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