A Chance To Lock Up The Division — Series Preview: Mets at Phillies, September 8-11

As the dog days of summer have come and gone, baseball is nearing the end of its regular season. With that comes the MLB postseason, and for the Phillies, it’s officially time to hunt for Red October.

The Phillies currently hold a seven-game lead for first place in the National East and a four-game lead for the No. 2 seed in the National League. They only have 19 games left to play in the regular season, and even if they go .500 over the next three weeks, the Phillies should once again be division winners and will have a bye in the playoffs.

However, nothing is guaranteed in sports, and standing in their way of locking down a division title is a four-game series against the Fightins’ biggest rivals, the New York Mets. This season, the Phillies are 2-7 against the Mets, losing 13 of their last 17 matchups, and 10 in a row at Citi Field. Just two weeks ago, the Phillies traveled to Queens and got swept in a three-game series.

Thankfully for the Phillies, this series is at Citizens Bank Park, where the last time these two teams met, the Phillies picked up the series win. While the Phillies will still hold at minimum a three-game lead over New York after their series, they have a chance to greatly increase their odds of calling themselves back-to-back National League East champions.

Setting The Tone

If the Phillies want any chance at winning games in this series, they have to do the opposite of what they did last time these two teams met. They have to set the tone for the series and win the opener.

It’s not going to be easy as they take on the Mets’ rookie sensation, right-handed pitcher Nolan McLean. McLean has burst onto the scene since making his debut back in August, posting a 4-0 record and a 1.37 ERA, and has arguably become the Mets’ best starting pitcher. He faced the Phillies back on August 27 and tossed eight shutout innings in a 6-0 Mets win. It was the first time anybody on the Phillies had faced McLean.

On top of facing a pitcher who has nasty pitches and dominated the Phillies just two weeks ago, the Phillies will roll out Aaron Nola for his fifth start since returning from the IL. Nola has struggled all year, pitching, posting a 6.78 ERA this year.

It’s going to be a tough task for the Phillies, as they’re sending out their worst starter this year against the Mets’ best starter right now. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. However, the Phillies usually catch up to pitchers the more they see them, and that will have to be the case if they want a shot at winning.

Hot Middle Of The Order

The big story coming out of the six-game road stretch was the fantastic at-bats from the middle of the Phillies lineup, more specifically, Brandon Marsh, Harrison Bader, and Max Kepler.

Marsh has been on fire not only in the last month, but ever since he returned from injury back in May. At one point this season, Marsh was batting .095 and looked like he was well on his way to being the odd man out of the Phillies outfield once Justin Crawford was ready for the big league.

Since he returned, Marsh has improved his batting average to .282, and has cemented himself as the first left-handed bat after Bryce Harper in the Phillies lineup. Over his last seven games, he’s batting .480, with two home runs and five RBIs, and over his last 100 games, he’s batting just above a .300 average.

After Marsh comes Bader, who has turned into a home run trade deadline acquisition from the Twins. Bader’s defense was already talked about as some of the best in the league, and that’s proved to be true, but his bat has also been a major factor. Bader is batting .400 and slugging .680 over his last 15 games, with two home runs and seven RBIs. He came up clutch in the Phillies’ 10-8 win over Milwaukee last week, recording three RBIs and three base hits.

And finally, there’s Kepler. Kepler looked like he was on his way to being DFA’d once the roster expanded in September, but Kepler has played his way into a platoon and possible starting job in right field once the playoffs begin. While Nick Castellanos‘ rough second has helped Kepler’s case to play, the left-hander has had himself a great past couple of weeks.

Since August 9, Kepler is batting .273 with a .473 slugging percentage. He has 15 hits, seven RBIs, and three home runs. It’s becoming a likely scenario that Marsh, Bader, and Kepler will be the Phillies’ go-to outfielders once the playoffs start, especially if they continue to put together great at-bats.

No Trea Turner?

Perhaps the worst thing heading into this series against the Mets is that the Phillies may be without their star shortstop for possibly the remainder of the year. Trea Turner suffered a right hamstring strain in Sunday’s loss to the Miami Marlins and will likely miss some time.

Trea Turner has a right hamstring strain. He will be evaluated further, according to the #Phillies.

— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) September 7, 2025

This is a huge concern for the Phillies, as Turner last season missed six weeks of the season with the same injury. Turner is batting .305 on the season and has totaled 179 hits, both being the best in the National League. It’s been a career year for the shortstop, not only at the plate but in the field, as Turner has committed only eight errors, compared to 17 last year and 23 the previous year.

If the injury is similar to last year’s, Turner will likely be out for the remainder of the regular season. His timetable to return then was 4-6 weeks, which puts him in line to return between the NLDS and NLCS. If the Phillies can get a first-round bye, Turner could return without ever missing any playoff time.

Time will tell how many games Turner misses, but if the Phillies cannot get their leadoff man back this season at all, they’re in for a rough go come the postseason.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Monday, September 8th, 6:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Tuesday, September 9th, 6:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Wednesday, September 10th, 6:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Thursday, September 11th, 7:15 p.m. ET, FOX, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Aaron Nola (RHP, 3-8, 6.78 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP, 4-0, 1.37 ERA)

Game 2: Ranger Suarez (LHP, 11-6, 2.89 ERA) vs. Sean Manaea (LHP, 1-2, 5.60 ERA)

Game 3: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 12-5, 2.60 ERA) vs. Clay Holmes (RHP, 11-7, 3.61 ERA)

Game 4: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 13-6, 4.01 ERA) vs. David Peterson (LHP, 9-5, 3.72 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Records
  • Phillies: 83-60
  • Mets: 76-67
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: 107
  • Mets: 66
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.77
  • Mets: 4.80
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.01
  • Mets: 4.33

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