NL’s Best — Series Preview: Phillies at Brewers, September 1-4

Following the Phillies series win versus their division rivals, the Atlanta Braves, they will pack their bags and head mid-west to Milwaukee for a three-game set against the Brewers, who lead the NL Central. Their visit to Milwaukee kicks off a road trip that will also feature a weekend series down in Miami.

The Brewers have been the best team in baseball this August with a 21-8 record that included a 14-game win streak against three NL East teams, the Reds, and the Pirates. The Phillies had the second-best record in August, going 18-11 in the month. In August, the Brewers had an .838 OPS with 43 home runs and 109 total extra-base hits. The only team with a higher OPS and 100+ XBH was the Mets, who went 11-16 in August.

Last time the Brewers met the Phillies was in late May when they swept the Phils at Citizens Bank Park and kicked off a string of losing series for the Phillies in early June. Their bats were hot, especially against Jesus Luzardo when they scored 17 runs in one game. Former Phillie, Rhys Hoskins, was responsible for six RBIs that day.

Not only were the Brew-crew hot in August, they also posted a 17-7 record in July, including two sweeps over the Dodgers. Their back-to-back best months in baseball helped them climb up the standings and take the division lead over the Cubs.

It’s now up to the Phillies to kick-start the Brewers’ September with a couple of losses. In order to do so, they’ll need top-of-the-lineup offensive production from their sneaky MVP candidate, Trea Turner, and their bullpen to keep stretching games out.

Trea Sheisty

Turner has been putting up a quiet MVP-caliber season all year, and people are just starting to notice it because Kyle Schwarber‘s season has overshadowed it. Over the weekend, we saw what many are saying was “The Trea Turner Game,” but we have seen Turner impact games all season long.

In August, Turner hit .339 with a .918 OPS and three home runs. Though he may not have many home runs, he’s getting on base at a high clip (.389) and posing a threat on the base paths with 9 stolen bases in the month. With Schwarber hitting behind him, opposing pitchers have quite a lot to worry about. Schwarber is hitting .249 with 23 home runs when men are on base, which typically includes Turner.

Turner reworked his approach at the plate earlier this season because Rob Thomson wanted him to get on base more rather than have more power. His approach has certainly worked, as reflected by his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In 2024, Turner finished 17th in the league in BABIP with .331, but this season he is 8th in the league with a .346 BABIP — a 15-point jump. Other notable Phils in the top 50 in BABIP are J.T. Realmuto (.337), listed at 16th, and Alec Bohm (.319), listed at 34th.

The Phillies win at a .710 (49-20) clip when Turner scores at least one run. It’s a simple formula for Trea: get on, get in, and win. While the second factor may not always be at his discretion, it’s left up to two veteran sluggers in Schwarber and Bryce Harper to get their leadoff man in.

Turner’s defense this year also should not be dismissed. Turner has a fielding run value (FRV) of 11 this season, when last season his defense was worth -2.

When Turner gets going early in the game, the offense typically follows suit, and he will have the opportunity on Monday to set the tone of the series.

Bullpen

The Phillies’ bullpen has done an amazing job down the stretch of keeping them in ballgames and keeping opposing teams out of them. We’ve most recently seen a combined effort on Friday night when Ranger Suarez was only able to go five innings. The bullpen bared down and tossed four shutout innings while the offense tallied another run to lead the game going into the ninth.

They followed up that performance on Saturday with two shutout innings in the eighth and ninth in a tie game. Matt Strahm inevitably gave up a run in the tenth with a runner starting on second base, but the offense picked him up when Turner walked it off in the bottom half of the tenth.

Perhaps it helps to have an easy pick for the ninth inning with Jhoan Duran in the bullpen, but it seems all relevant members of the bullpen have pulled themselves up by the bootstraps and taken a smaller role for a better outcome.

Though their Sunday night showing wasn’t the best, they’ve outperformed expectations as of late. It also doesn’t help playing 10 straight games with no break.

It may take a lot for the Phillies to take a series win in this early September series versus the best team in baseball, but with a solid bullpen down the stretch and the top of the order producing, it’ll be more manageable.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Monday, September 1st, 4:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Wednesday, September 3rd, 7:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Thursday, September 4th, 4:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 1210 WPHT, WTTM 1680

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Taijuan Walker (RHP, 4-7, 3.63 ERA) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, 4-2, 4.33 ERA)

Game 2: Aaron Nola (RHP, 3-7, 6.47 ERA) vs. Jose Quintana (LHP, 10-5, 3.69 ERA)

Game 3: Ranger Suarez (LHP, 10-6, 3.02 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP, 16-5, 2.58 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Records
  • Phillies: 79-58
  • Brewers: 85-53
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: 99
  • Brewers: 163
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.77
  • Brewers: 5.10
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.03
  • Brewers: 3.88

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