D.C. Drama Raises Questions Regarding Phillies’ October Rotation

It seemed like every day the Phillies were in D.C. there was a headline, whether it be Jhoan Duran’s heart-stopping injury, Zack Wheeler’s blood clot that still has hearts stopped in the greater Philadelphia area or Aaron Nola’s return that broke the hearts of those whose were still intact. There’s almost too much to cover but nicely enough Jhoan Duran handled his story with a save on Sunday to split the four-game series down in D.C.

Splitting a series against the bottom-feeder Washington Nationals isn’t exactly ideal but to put in perspective, the Phillies spent ten days on the road with no off-days and traveled from Texas to Cincinnati to Washington D.C.. On that road trip the Phils went 6-4 while getting their first sweep since June 15th against the Rangers. In that span they also increased their lead in the NL East by 3 games to 5.5 over the Mets while also jumping the Dodgers for the projected 2nd seed in the playoffs.

Assuming they hold their current position in standings, the Phillies will not play in the wild card round and will first play in the NLDS. Due to the TV scheduling this year, teams that play in the NLDS will only need three starting pitchers–there’s a scheduled off-day between game 1 and 2 unlike the AL schedule. With that said, the Phillies aren’t in as much of a pickle as they could be with the recent Wheeler news. They can just as easily trot out Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola and one of Jesus Luzardo and Ranger Suarez. It may not be as dominant as Wheeler, Sanchez and their choice of a third but it could be enough to get by.

Obviously, all this is considering they make the playoffs and hold their place in the National League standings but let’s take a look at who deserves a playoff rotation spot.

The obvious answers are Wheeler and Sanchez, without a doubt they are #1 and #2 in the rotation. If Wheeler’s injury allows him to come back before playoffs then the #3 spot is up for grabs between three and maybe even four pitchers. Aaron Nola should be the top candidate for this position, which we’ll call “trailing Sanchez” because it may be #3 if Wheeler makes it back or #2 if not.

Nola, despite his blow-up outing, is the most vetted pitcher of the three. He has the most playoff experience of the three with 10 games started and an unfortunate 4.02 ERA in those starts. Disregarding his only start in last year’s NLDS, Nola has a solid 3.70 ERA and a 3.41 FIP. He’s played in the biggest moments baseball can offer which is something only Ranger Suarez can compare with.

Additionally, Aaron Nola has only 50 innings on his arm this year which is 70 less than Suarez who has dealt with dead-arm late in the season and 90 less than Jesus Luzardo who is pacing to set a season high in innings pitched. Nola will have at least six more starts, barring injury, to prove he’s back to his best ability.

Ranger Suarez also has a decent case to make for the “trailing Sanchez” spot. Suarez has posted a 1.43 ERA in the playoffs with eight starts and 37.2 innings pitched which may seem low but Thomson used him as a five innings guy while also taking on a reliever role. Suarez has been nails in every bright lights moment and always has complete control of the game.

However, he has and continues to struggle in the second half when he pushes 100 innings on the season. In his last five starts which have brought him over the 100 inning mark, Suarez has a 6.59 ERA while giving up 11 free bases. In his last start, Suarez showed a side of him that isn’t as calm, cool and collected that fans haven’t seen. It’s more likely Suarez ends up in a bullpen role because Rob Thomson knows he can trust him there and because of his recent struggles, though there is still time to turn a corner.

As for Jesus Luzardo, there’s not much case to be made partly because he’s the new guy. If Luzardo and Nola finish the season similarly, it’s more likely that Nola takes the spot because of tenure and trust. Luzardo hasn’t been trustworthy since his Brewers start in June. He’s bounced between 7 innings of shutout baseball and 5 innings or less of 3 runs or more. Luzardo is more than capable of sticking on the 7 shutout innings side but he’ll have to prove that in these remaining starts before Topper hands him the keys to game three.

Luzardo also has the least amount of playoff experience. He’s started three games and has a 6.14 ERA in his appearances for the–at the time–Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins. Against the Phillies in 2023, Luzardo went four innings allowing three runs–though this time the Bank will be on his side. Luzardo may find himself in a bullpen role if the Phillies get a bye into the NLDS and Wheeler is healthy for it but if they make it to the next round, it’s likely that he will be a game four starter over Suarez due to his inexperience in the bullpen.

Ideally for the Phillies, they have Zack Wheeler back to throw whatever first game they have and Nola finishes the year strong to earn his spot as the #3 starter. There’s still over a month of baseball to be played but with Wheeler’s injury, the conversations are starting to happen regarding their playoff rotation.

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