Time to Right the Ship — Series Preview: Phillies at Pirates, June 6-8

This season has been one of peaks and valleys, as they all tend to be, but this season has been pretty extreme.

When Atlanta left town, things seemed to be going well; the Phils took 2 out of 3 from the Braves and beat the A’s in Sacramento. Then things made a dramatic left turn when the Brewers came to town. The Brew Crew swept the Phils at home, and the trip north to Toronto for a series against the Blue Jays has resulted in another series loss, dropping 2 of 3 there.

The concerning part is that the Phils are not playing well on either side of the ball. They were outscored by Milwaukee 28-11 in the sweep and 14-10 against the Jays. While the pitching has been hit rather hard in the last series, particularly by Milwaukee in game 2 of that series, where they scored 17 runs on the Phils at Citizens Bank Park. The concerning part is the offense being too hit and miss, no pun intended. The inconsistency of these last 2 series is a huge part of the 1-5 record in the last 2 series. Granted, Bryce Harper being out after taking a Spencer Strider fastball off of his surgically repaired arm was a blow, but it appears to have derailed his resurgence that we had started to see.

Harper Needs to Get His Groove Back

Up until the hit by pitch, May Harper was starting to drive the ball with authority again. His average exit velocity went up more than 4 mph in May, along with him carrying a .308 batting average for the month with a .864 OPS. I won’t put the series losses on his back, but this season has proven that he is one of the key elements to the Phillies’ offense. Even when he’s not getting the big hit, he changes what the opposition does. When he’s swinging the bat better, it gives those batting before him better pitches to see because the pitcher doesn’t want to pitch to Bryce with a runner or two on, and those behind him tend to have runners on, especially with him working counts and drawing walks.

Not only is his performance on the field important, but his presence in the lineup, to the Phils’ mindset, and dare I say swagger, is wildly important. No knock on Weston Wilson, but when Harper is in the lineup, the team follows their leader and plays with his intensity and fire.

Bryce has always hit the Pirates well over his career, particularly in PNC Park, so this may be a great series for him to find his swing and gain the confidence he had when the team left Sacramento.

Bullpen Woes Continue

The Phillies’ bullpen has been a glaring weakness over the past six games, surrendering critical leads and failing to provide stability in late innings. Coming into this weekend’s series, the bullpen ERA is 4.56, which is 6th worst in baseball, raising the overall team ERA to 4.04, which is 21st in all of baseball.

In the June 4th loss to the Blue Jays, former Toronto closer Jordan Romano allowed a walk-off RBI double to Alejandro Kirk in the ninth inning, marking another blown opportunity. The bullpen’s collective ERA during this stretch has ballooned, reflecting their inability to maintain leads and give the offense a chance to stay within striking distance. This inconsistency has not only cost the team victories but also undermined the efforts of the starters.

Rob Thomson‘s decision to move Taijuan Walker to the bullpen was aimed at bolstering the struggling bullpen, yet the results have been underwhelming. Despite Walker’s experience, the bullpen continues to be porous at best, with relievers struggling to maintain leads and prevent late-game rallies. The stats prove what we can all see watching the games: they’re giving up way too much solid contact.

The lack of dependable options in high-leverage situations raises concerns about the team’s postseason aspirations. If the Phillies aim to contend deep into October, immediate and decisive action is required to address the bullpen’s shortcomings. As Friday’s game appears to be a bullpen game, the bullpen collectively needs to come together and turn it around.

Wheeler Out, Skenes on Sunday

Zack Wheeler missed the Toronto series for the birth of his child and was placed on the paternity list Wednesday. He’ll be back for the Cubs series, but won’t pitch in Pittsburgh. The Phillies will roll with a bullpen game Friday, then send out Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez for the weekend. With the way the bullpen has looked recently, this will definitely be a concern for everyone.

Sunday’s matchup brings the Phillies face-to-face with Paul Skenes, who’s easily been the most electric pitcher in baseball this season, but really since his call-up. This season he’s seemed to somehow gotten better, but he hasn’t gotten much help from Pittsburgh’s offense. In his last start against the Phillies back in May, he pitched a complete game, gave up 1 run, struck out 9… and took the loss. There’s a reason he has a 4-6 record and a 2.05 ERA going into Sunday.

The key for Philly? Work counts and try to get his pitch count up, and force the Pirates to go to their weak middle relief. The offense needs to start up on Friday, then carry it into Sunday to have a chance. The realistic goal for the Phils is to score 1-2 runs and hope that the Pirates’ offense stays stagnant as they have in the past week.

Phillies Sunday starter Sanchez has pitched well historically against the Pirates. In a small sample of 4 games against Pittsburgh, he has a 1.45 ERA with 13 strikeouts. So, it looks like we should see a low-scoring Sunday game, which hasn’t meant anything this season.

This trip to Pittsburgh could be just what the Phils need to get some momentum started, especially with the home stand that is on the other side of the Pittsburgh series. The Cubs and Blue Jays come to town, and neither is going to be easy.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Friday, June 6, 6:40 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Saturday, June 7, 4:05 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Sunday, June 8, 1:35 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB Network (out-of-market only), 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Jose Ross (RHP, 2-1, 4.34 ERA) vs. Bailey Falter (LHP, 4-3, 3.14 ERA)

Game 2: Ranger Suarez (LHP, 4-0, 2.72 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP, 3-4, 3.39 ERA)

Game 3: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 5-1, 3.15 ERA) vs. Paul Skenes (RHP, 4-6, 2.05 ERA)

By the Numbers

• Records
• Phillies: 37-25
• Pirates: 23-39

• Run Differential 
• Phillies: 26
• Pirates: -58

• Runs Scored Per Game 
• Phillies: 4.75
• Pirates: 3.18

• Runs Allowed Per Game 
• Phillies: 4.33
• Pirates: 4.11

---

Use code PHILLYSPORTSREPORT for $20 off your first SeatGeek order

Click here to save 10% on any order at FOCO