Joel Embiid May Never Play Another Back-to-Back
Apr 20, 2024; New York, New York, USA; Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) grabs a rebound in the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks in game one of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Receiving the offseason’s biggest acquisition has brought mixed reactions to the 76ers. While the arrival of Paul George has generated excitement about the possible ceiling, it has also heightened concerns about the team’s ability to reach the playoffs “fully healthy.” These worries have only deepened, as every season there seems to be renewed anxiety about Joel Embiid‘s health come April and May, raising questions about whether the Sixers can sustain a deep playoff run without injury setbacks.
In an article by Tim Bontemps of ESPN, Embiid said, “I would probably never play back-to-backs the rest of my career.”
With the season just a week away, Embiid has yet to take part in full 5-on-5 practices or make an appearance in a preseason game. Now, with Embiid himself saying that he may not participate in back-to-back games this season, concerns are growing in Philadelphia about his readiness and long-term durability as the team looks ahead to the 2024-25 season. However, I think this has been the solution all along. The way Embiid is built and how he plays makes it nearly impossible for him to play 75% or more of the season without some sort of setback. Without a doubt, back-to-backs are the primary culprit. Back-to-back games are detrimental for any NBA player, and Embiid magnifies their effect. With back-to-backs, Embiid would not get sufficient time to rest his knee or rest his back.
Just because this was the solution all along doesn’t mean it was feasible. In years past, the backup center that would assume the starting job in Embiid’s absence were guys like Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe, Mo Bamba, the list of disappointing backups goes on. With the return of Andre Drummond, the 76ers should now have an easier time giving Embiid games off to rest. In the 49 games Drummond played for the Sixers back in the 2021-22 season, he averaged 6.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 0.9 blocks in 19.4 minutes. In the 12 games he started for the Sixers that year, he put up 9.4 points and 13.0 rebounds per game, including a 23-rebound performance against the Kings. Rebounding was the most depressing aspect of the team last season, especially in the series with the Knicks. So much so, Drummond recalled Embiid recruiting him to resign here, “Getting a phone call from the best center in the NBA saying, ‘I need you here’ … it’s hard to tell him no,” but now with the return of a top-50 all-time rebounder, there should be more hope for this team in the Embiid-less minutes and games.
Along with Drummond, the arrival of Paul George also makes it more feasible to give Embiid extended time off. Part of the expectation with George is that he should be able to help Maxey with the load in the minutes Embiid’s off, or even the games he’s off. A lot of that hinges on George’s ability to produce and his ability to stay healthy. No doubt, George has had his share of injury trouble in the past, but last season should leave Sixer fans pretty hopeful. George played in 74 out of 82 games in the regular season, averaging 22-5-5 on 41.3% from three. It will be crucial for George to step up in games with Embiid absent.
The 76ers play 14 back-to-backs this season, so Embiid is saying he will probably not play in back-to-backs, which rules him out of 14 games already. That leaves 68 games. I also think it would be safe to scratch him from at least 10 games for estimated sake. Down to 58 games now. So in the roughly 58 games Embiid should play, they need between 38 and 44 of those games. That would put them between .650 and .750 winning records with him. That means they will need to win between 12 and 6 games out of 24 without Embiid to win a total of 50 games. Worst case scenario, barring any true Embiid injury, they will need to win 50% of the games in his absence to fall around the 3-4 seed. This should be very accomplishable considering the current roster construction.
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Nate Tramdaks
Nate is a Sophomore at La Salle studying finance. He closely follows the 76ers, has co-hosted his own 76ers podcast in the past, and has been writing for Syracuse University Sports.
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