Which NL East Opponent Should Phillies Prefer to Face in Postseason?

The final weeks of the 2024 MLB regular season are here, and with them we see postseason seeding taking its final shape. The Phillies are one game away from securing a spot in the playoffs, and their magic number for winning the division is now down to just four.

However, anyone who has been checking the standings knows that they will almost definitely not be the only NL East team to be playing in October, as the Mets and the Braves continue to battle for that final wildcard spot. With that in mind, there is a very real possibility that the Phillies will face one of these teams at some point in their playoff journey, the question is which one would they rather see? The answer is not as easy as you might think, so let’s break down each opponent to see how each of these series could play out.

The Braves

Looking at Atlanta first, this is a team that has undoubtedly had the Phillies number for the past few seasons. Winners of the last six division titles, one of which resulted in a World Series victory, this is a team that has been the model of success for the last few years. That is, of course, unless you account for the last two playoff runs, in which the Phillies famously took them down in the NLDS in back-to-back years, needing only four games to do so both times. The 2024 Atlanta Braves are not the same team they once were however, and have been ravaged by injuries this entire year, most notably to the reigning National League MVP in Ronald Acuña Jr. and ace Spencer Strider among others. As a result, Atlanta has been a good team, but certainly not elite, especially compared to their regular-season success last year. There have been many bright spots for the team, such as Marcel Ozuna’s excellent offensive production and the Cy Young-worthy performance of newly acquired Chris Sale, but not enough where they were ever truly considered to be one of the best teams in the MLB this season.

The Mets

The Mets have had a very interesting season, to say the least. It began the way that most people thought it would: very very badly. The team was fresh off of a disappointing 2023 season where they were sellers at the trade deadline and were essentially viewing this year as a rebuild. However, after the London Series against the Phillies in mid-June, something unexpected happened; the Mets started winning. Entering the London Series the Mets were 27-35, since then they are 57-33. Credit whoever you want, Fransisco Lindor, Jose Iglesias, Grimace, it doesn’t really matter, because there is no denying that the Mets have been one of the best teams of the second half of the season. However, it is worth noting that in the 90 games they have played since their big turnaround, only 33 of them were against a team that was above .500, so the strength of the opponent can be questioned.

Pros and Cons

When trying to decide which matchup would be preferable for the Phillies a lot of factors need to be taken into account. First of all the Phillies’ seeding compared to the other potential NL division winners is not yet secured, meaning that they could face the Mets or Braves in a three-game series, a five-game series, or a seven-game series based on how the season concludes. Thankfully they have the tiebreakers over the expected NL West winners in the Dodgers and confirmed NL Central winners in the Brewers, meaning a tie with either of those clubs would result in the higher seed, greatly increasing the likelihood of a one-seed or two-seed. This is very important because the Mets or Braves being in the Wild Card Round requires them to use two or even three of their best pitchers. Assuming the Phillies land the two seed this would put Zack Wheeler on the mound for game one of the NLDS against the opposing team’s third or fourth starter, or their first on short rest. This provides a massive pitching advantage (one that the Braves have been unable to capitalize on when facing the Phillies in the past two postseasons thanks to the brilliance of Ranger Suarez).

With this in mind, a big question becomes which pitching rotation you fear more, and in terms of which pitchers have gotten the better of the Phillies this year, it is undoubtedly the Braves. Chris Sale is the Cy Young favorite, Reynaldo Lopez has only allowed two earned runs against the Phillies in 17 innings through three games, and the Phillies can’t seem to figure out Spencer Schwellenbach. The Phillies have proven themselves to be much more effective against the Mets starters, with none of them giving the Phillies any real problems at any point in 2024, despite very strong seasons from players like Luis Severino and David Peterson.

However, another important factor to consider is momentum, which is something the Phillies have been very familiar with in the past two years, as they have used it very effectively to facilitate two deep playoff runs. And when looking at momentum, the Mets have a clear advantage in this category. The Braves started off very well and have mostly spent the rest of the season trying to cling on to that good start, slipping from the first wild card spot to the second, to the third, and finally out of the wild card altogether, being two games behind the Mets. The Mets, as we have already discussed, have had the exact opposite trajectory, propelling their way into the final playoff spot and fighting like hell to keep it.

Who Should the Phillies Want?

Taking all this into consideration, I still think it is a very close call between who the Phillies should want to match up with in October. If you were to ask me, however, I would have to go with the Mets. I understand that the Mets have been incredibly hot, I understand that Fransisco Lindor is having an MVP caliber season, and I understand that they had both Grimace AND the Hawk Tuah girl throw out the first pitch, but the saying “Mets gonna Met” exists for a reason. This to me is a team that is massively overperforming based on what was expected of them, so they are going to be happy simply making it into the postseason at all. They do not have the pieces to win three out of five or four out of seven. Additionally, they do not have a large amount of postseason experience to fall back on if they were to make it out of the wild card round, save for their unexpected loss to the Padres in 2022. Now obviously all of this could have been and was said about the 2022 Phillies, who as we all know made it all the way to the World Series. However, that team was supposed to be a competitive team the entire year and underperformed relative to expectations prior to the firing of Joe Girardi, where they then began competing at a level expected of a team with that much talent.

The Braves to me are just a team that is more built for postseason success, even with all the injuries they have sustained. The Braves also won the season series against the Phillies this year 7-6, whereas the Mets can only do so with a four-game sweep in this upcoming series. And of course, we all know that the season series should not matter in the postseason, as the Braves beat the Phillies in the regular season in both 2022 and 2023 before falling in the NLDS, but this year feels different. I know for a fact those losses loom incredibly large over that entire franchise, and they are no doubt chomping at the bit to do exactly what the Phillies did to them for the past two years.

I want to make it clear that I firmly believe that the Phillies are more than capable of beating both these teams were they to match up in the postseason, I am just stating the team I would prefer to see. Despite all of that though, there’s a fairly decent chance that the Phillies face neither of these teams come October, there’s a lot of baseball left to play, and a lot that can change in these final weeks of the regular season. All we have to do is sit back and watch.

---

Use code PHILLYSPORTSREPORT for $20 off your first SeatGeek order

Click here to save 10% on any order at FOCO