Dethrone the Braves — Series Preview: Braves at Phillies, August 29 – September 1

No division lead will ever be comfortable with the Atlanta Braves. They have 18 pennants, four world championships, and have won six consecutive division titles. Just last season, they notched 104 regular-season victories, giving them the highest winning percentage in baseball. They have always been a force to reckoned with, and they always will be.

Nevertheless, the Phillies finally have the chance to do something that no team other than the Braves has done since 2017—win the National League East and dethrone the Atlanta Braves. Despite their five-game lead in the division, it will not be an easy task. Of the Braves’ eight remaining series, five of them are against teams below .500. And of course, their prior accolades and history of winning only corroborates the organization’s success.

Beginning on Thursday, the Phillies and Braves will duke it out for the division in a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies will send their four best pitchers to the mound—Christopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola—while the Braves look the win their sixth straight series and their tenth game out of the last 12.

Last Time They Met

Just last week, the Phillies and Braves faced off in Atlanta for a big, three-game series between the division rivals. The Phillies got solid pitching from Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Christopher Sanchez, but the offense strung a mere 13 hits and six runs together over the course of their three games in Atlanta. In their only win, which came in game two, the Phillies made a late-game comeback thanks to situational hitting from Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Brandon Marsh.

Of course, not too much of note has happened since these two squads last met, but both have continued to play life playoff-caliber teams. Coming into the series after sweeping the Twins, the Braves have a 5-1 record since their last meeting with the Phillies. And after lots of anticipation, the Phillies’ offense finally broke open in Kansas City, scoring 26 runs on 45 hits. The Phillies won two of three games in both series they have played since leaving Atlanta.

What’s the Play?

With Austin Hays having returned from the injured list, the Phillies’ outfield is back to being fully healthy (knock on wood!!), so we are once again seeing manager Rob Thomson platooning Hays, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, and Weston Wilson. Unfortunately, no solution is fair, and no solution is simple.

For starters, the Braves are sending right-handed starters to the mound for games one, three, and four, while lefty Max Fried gets the start in game three. That said, we will likely see lefty Brandon Marsh get an abundance of opportunities in this series, as Thomson is known to heavily consider handedness when constructing his lineup card.

When Hays was traded to the Phillies, Thomson said that he was viewed as an every-day player, but even with the hot bats of Rojas and Wilson, his original notion still appears to stand. Hays has a .304 average and a .739 OPS over his last seven games and recorded three hits in the series against the Astros. However, these numbers do not stand up to those of Wilson and Rojas. In 23 at-bats in August, Wilson has 12 hits (.522), including four doubles, a triple, and a home run, cumulating for a 1.455 OPS. Rojas’ power has not yet surfaced like Wilson’s but he still has a .314 average and a .751 OPS over his last fifteen games.

Of course, Hays has the leverage when it comes to seniority, and he certainly deserves a chance to prove that he can be a valuable part of the Phillies’ lineup. But when the numbers are looked at in isolation, and Rojas’ elite speed and defense are appropriately highlighted, it might be fair to question of Hays should be starting for a fourth night in a row.

Here is how the Phillies are lined up for game one:

DH Kyle Schwarber
SS Trea Turner
1B Bryce Harper
3B Alec Bohm
RF Nick Castellanos
2B Bryson Stott
C J.T. Realmuto
CF Brandon Marsh
LF Austin Hays

A Roster Shakeup

After another painful start, the Phillies have finally caved, moving Taijuan Walker to the bullpen to be the new long man, just five days after Tyler Gilbert was optioned to triple-A Lehigh Valley. Walker has a 7.36 ERA over his last seven games, where he has thrown just 33 innings and allowed 27 earned runs on 42 hits. Among all qualified pitchers, he is in the first percentile in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.

The Phillies also recalled Yunior Marte from triple-A and optioned reliever Michael Mercado, who allowed four runs in 1.1 innings in game three against the Astros. Marte has a 7.13 ERA in the big leagues this season, but he boasted a 3.31 ERA before being put on the injured list at the beginning of May.