How Many Bohm Runs Will we See? The PSR Writers Dive Into the 2024 Home Run Derby…

It’s that time of year once again! The Home Run Derby is always an exciting event in the baseball world, and with a re-formatted style of play and a lineup stacked with the game’s best hitters, this year will be no exception. Phillies fans are excited to see homegrown talent Alec Bohm perform in his first career derby, just one day before he is slated to be the starting third baseman for the NL All-Star team.

This year’s derby will definitely look a little different. Here are a few notable changes…

The first round will not be head-to-head. The four players who hit the most home runs will advance to the semi-finals, where they will be seeded based on the number of home runs they hit in the first round.
In the first two rounds, contestants will have three minutes to hit 40 baseballs. After the time expires or all 40 balls have been pitched, their round is over. In the third round, the two finalists will have two minutes to hit 27 pitches.
Each contestant receives bonus time at the end of their round. They will continue to hit after their round ends until they record three “outs.” An out, in this case, is any ball that is swung at but is not a home run. In this bonus period, if a ball is hit 425 feet or farther, they will receive one additional out.

Obviously, this type of change could lead to some confusion (especially in the first year), but it looks like these updates may negate any controversy about the previous seeding system.

With the stage set and the competition just hours away, we asked Philly Sports Reports’ Phillies team to make some bold predictions ahead of the competition:

Benjamin Goldstein

Predicted Winner: Marcell Ozuna

Why?

Ozuna has been the best home run hitter in the NL so far this season and is built for this tournament. With the new format, Ozuna will be able to pace himself well during the first round and get into a slow but consistent rhythm. We know he has the power stroke, so for Ozuna, all he has to do is find the right pace, and he should be on the path to victory.

Biggest Upset: Bohm Moves On

Alec Bohm may not be the biggest home run guy, but he looks like he is when taking batting practice, and that is what the derby is. Bohm has the pop and the power to go deep in this thing and take down the veterans, including NL East rival Pete Alonso, who is going for his third Derby victory.

Colin Daly

Predicted Winner: Bobby Witt, Jr.

Why?

Last year, I took the easy route and chose Pete Alonso–who was pummeled by Julio Rodriguez in the first round–as my predicted winner. This year, I am switching it up and picking a young gun. Bobby Witt, Jr. only has 16 home runs in 385 at-bats in 2024, but at the age of 24, he absolutely has the endurance and athleticism to take home the title. Some have questioned whether Witt has the raw power to win, and his 468-foot home run on April 21 answered that question boldly. Two young guys battled it out for the trophy last year, and I’d expect the same to transpire in 2024.

Biggest Upset: Ozuna Gets Knocked Early

Marcell Ozuna may have the second-most home runs in the National League, but the 33-year-old designated hitter will be competing against his age on Monday. Ozuna has a history of injury and does not move very well at this point in his career, and in a game of endurance, the first-timer is already at a disadvantage. Of course, the new format will help, but hitting 40 baseballs in three minutes is no easy feat. With young guys like Witt, Alec Bohm, and Gunnar Henderson on the invite list, Ozuna and the other veterans will have their work cut out for them.

Bill Leahy

Predicted Winner: Adolis Garcia

Why?

I have always loved Adolis as a player and, with the season Texas has had so far, I expect him to want to put on a show for the home fans. Garcia did not put on the best showing in 2023, so this very well may be his year to shine.

Biggest Upset: Ozuna Gets Knocked Early

Marcell Ozuna does not make it to the final four. Partly because I do not like him. I have always seen him as lazy. Also, as the oldest competitor and a bigger guy, swinging a bat for three minutes straight does not seem like it would bode well. For these and many other reasons, give me Ozuna to go out before the bracket portion of the competition begins.

Daniel McDevitt

Predicted Winner: Alec Bohm

Why?

Listen, I’m gonna choose with my heart on this one and say Alec Bohm is going to do the impossible. We saw the underdog story almost happen last year with Adley Rutschman, and I think Alec Bohm is capable of winning this with his showings in batting practice throughout the season. He has the power to make me believe that he is going to win the 2024 Home Run Derby.

Biggest Upset: Alonso Disappoints Again

I think the biggest upset is going to be a Pete Alonso first-round exit. Pete hasn’t been the same person he was a few years ago and I think Alec Bohm and the other young guns have the power and the pop to really give him a run for his money.

Ethan Whitney

Predicted Winner: Gunnar Henderson

Why?

To start, there’s no doubt that Henderson has the power for it. He has 28 homers this year, putting him in third in all of MLB in that category. Secondly, Henderson tends to pull his homers toward the right side of the diamond, where the dimensions at Globe Life Field go from 410 feet all the way down to 327. If he can really pull it, which will be made easier by slower pitching, then he should have a leg up. Finally, he has more homers than anyone else in this year’s derby, leading Marcell Ozuna by two.

Biggest Upset: Ozuna Gets Knocked Early

I do not think Marcell Ozuna makes it out of the first round. This is because a majority of his homers have been to center field this year, which will only make his life harder in the derby, and it will take the balls longer to land in order for him to get another pitch. For comparison, guys like Pete Alonso and Teoscar Hernandez tend to hit the ball toward the closer left-field wall, allowing them to get more pitches and pace themselves more effectively during the competition.

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