Choppin’ Away — Phillies-Braves NLDS Preview
Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Following a sweep of the Miami Marlins, Red October is not ready to be put to rest. Not only does this impending Phillies-Braves series feature two of the hungriest, deepest teams in all of baseball, but it also includes two of the most passionate fanbases in sports. Home-field advantage is going to be a factor, and the grittier team will persist through the battle of attrition.
The Phillies’ success at home is well-noted, and recognition is definitely warranted. According to ESPN’s Sarah Langs, the Phillies are now 24-11 in the postseason at Citizens Bank Park since its inception in 2004. With this .686 winning percentage, the Phillies have the best postseason record for any team that has played a minimum of 20 games in a certain ballpark, as they are just ahead of the New York Mets, who had a postseason record of 26-13 at Shea Stadium.
Braves’ fans, infamous for their celebratory chop, are bound to fill the seats for their first playoff series of what is arguably the most dominant Braves franchise in the organization’s history. During the regular season, Atlanta had a strong 52-29 home record, accounting for exactly half of their 104 victories.
Ultimately, one team will defend their home stadium, and the other will be shipped back to theirs.
Last Time They Met
The Phillies and Braves have been familiar foes over the past month. In September, they faced off seven times, with the Phillies winning just three of those matchups.
In the most recent meeting between the two squads, the Phillies took two of three games thanks to big contributions from Nick Castellanos, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola. In game one, Johan Rojas, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber all left the yard, and Zack Wheeler delivered a quality start.
After a game-two loss, Castellanos hit a tone-setting, two-run home run in the second inning of the rubber match, and the Phillies went on to win in extra innings. Aaron Nola, who is slated to start the first NLDS game at Citizens Bank Park, threw six strong innings in his final regular-season meeting with the Braves.
Breaking Down the Rosters
For the Phillies, not much has changed on the roster front. As expected, Michael Lorenzen is back on the roster after the Phillies carried just twelve pitchers in the Wild Card series. Since his no-hitter in August, Lorenzen has struggled mightily, evidenced by his 7.17 ERA over his last 7 appearances. Lorenzen was moved to the bullpen amid his struggles and is expected to stay there during the series, serving as a long reliever. It’s also worth noting that in Lorenzen’s most recent encounter with Atlanta, he allowed for runs on three hits and three walks while recording just one out.
Interestingly, rookie Weston Wilson was excluded from the roster to make room for Lorenzen. Wilson did not appear in the Marlins series, but with how much Jake Cave has scuffled over the past two months, some were puzzled by this decision. The Braves rostered a righty-heavy staff, and even though Cave has just one hit in his last 21 at-bats, he has much more experience and success against big-league righties compared to Wilson, who has only 16 major-league at-bats under his belt.
The Braves chose not to roster veteran pitchers Jesse Chavez and Kyle Wright, both of whom are recovering from injury. Daysbel Hernandez, a Braves prospect known for generating swings and misses, will fill Chavez’s spot in the bullpen. Top prospect Vaughn Grissom, who also snuck onto the roster thanks to a strong September, is likely the Braves’ top pinch-hit option off the bench.
Get ’em in and Get ’em Out!
Everyone knows that the 2022 Braves were a deeper, stronger team than the 2022 Phillies. But why did the Phillies prevail? Patience, quality, and opportunistic play.
Last season, the Phillies struck early against the Braves starting pitchers. They worked lengthy at-bats, wore down the pitcher, and capitalized when a mistake was made. If the Phillies aim to find success once again, that strategy should prove effective.
Spencer Strider, the Braves’ game-one starter, has dominated the Phillies in the regular season. He has won all eight appearances against the Phillies in the regular season. This season, in particular, Strider boasts a 2.42 ERA and 37 strikeouts across 26 innings.
Needless to say, the individual numbers are not good. Nick Castellanos has a .167 average against him, Harper’s is .188, and Stott is batting just .150. In 156 at-bats as a team, the Phillies have struck out 60 times, and they have just eight extra-base hits.
But the story is completely different in regard to the Braves’ bullpen, the one imperfection on a nearly perfect team. As a team, the Phillies have 26 hits and a .714 slugging percentage against Braves’ closer Raisel Iglesias.
Despite Atlanta’s ‘pen having the eleventh-best ERA in the MLB, the Phillies’ offense is set up for success. This season, against fastballs greater than 97mph, the Phillies are slugging just .403, but against hurlers with fastballs averaging less than 97mph, they are slugging .485. Conveniently, the highest-velocity fastball in the Braves’ bullpen belongs to A.J. Minter, whose fastball has averaged just 96.1mph since the beginning of September, per Matt Winkelman of Phillies Minor Thoughts.
The Phillies are starting lefty Ranger Suarez in game one, and the rotation will reset back to Zack Wheeler for game two. The first pitch is scheduled for approximately 6:07pm ET on Saturday night. For further details, follow Philly Sports Reports‘ social media accounts and read the previews that will be published prior to every game.
What did you think about the game yesterday?