Impending Reality Check? Series Preview: Phillies at Rays, July 4 – 6
Happy Independence Day, everybody! Unfortunately, the Phillies are not playing in Philadelphia, the former U.S. capital city and place where the Declaration of Independence was signed. Quite frankly, I’m sure even the Continental Congress would agree that the Phillies not playing at home today is a bummer.
Today, however, is a step up from last year, as Philadelphia’s team will at least be stuck in a dome for the next three days to face the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays, a powerhouse in the American League, are in first place in the AL East and have the best overall record in the American League, being 27 games over .500.
Surely, this will be a challenge for the Phillies, who have struggled against the Braves—the National League’s powerhouse team. The Rays have a team OPS of .798, which is the third-best in all of baseball, and they have a pitching staff that has allowed the least amount of hits and has the lowest batting average against in MLB.
This series will either be a huge boost of confidence that proves that the Phillies are serious contenders, or it will be a reality check for the team with the fourth-highest payroll in baseball.
Here are two questions ahead of the Rays-Phillies series:
1. So, how did the Rays get this good?
Actually, it’s pretty incredible. The Rays’ $76.2 million 2023 payroll is the third-lowest in Major League Baseball, yet they have the second-best winning percentage behind the aforementioned Braves.
The Rays have an excellent scouting department, and they have a copious amount of talented, homegrown players like ace Shane McClanahan and outfielder Josh Lowe. The Rays have also picked up players who were released by other teams and developed them into strong major-league players. Rays’ star shortstop Wander Franco was released by the Royals and Giants, and all-star Randy Arozarena was let go by the Cardinals after just nineteen big-league games. Now, as a Ray, Arozarena has a .822 OPS in four seasons in Tampa.
This season, in particular, the Rays took some gambles on players they thought had a chance to rebound. 36-year-old reliever Jake Diekman was signed to a league-minimum contract on May 9, and he has a 2.16 ERA this season. Outfielder Jose Siri, who was hitting .178 before being traded to the Rays at the end 2022, has a .830 OPS in 2023.
Needless to say, the Rays’ special ability to seek down the most talented, under-the-radar players and mold them into big-league stars is more than noteworthy, especially since that is something the Phillies have seemingly struggled with for years.
In the offseason, the Rays did not make too many flashy moves aside from the signing of starting pitcher Zach Eflin, who was in the Phillies’ bullpen during the 2023 playoffs. In the past, Eflin has had some injury concerns, but that did not stop Tampa Bay from signing the righty to a three-year deal. Like many of the Rays’ other signees, Eflin has had one of his best career seasons in 2023, posting a 3.28 ERA across 15 starts.
2. Can Aaron Nola get back on track?
When the Phillies were playing at their best last season, Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola was a vital part of their success. In the 2022 regular season, Nola had a 3.25 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and 235 strikeouts across 205 innings of work. It was arguably his best season since he was a Cy Young contender in 2018, so contract talks stirred in the offseason.
Nola’s 2023 story has, unfortunately, been a little bit different. He has a 4.51 ERA in 17 starts, and he has allowed 17 home runs in 105.2 innings pitched. For comparison, Nola allowed just 19 home runs in almost twice as many innings last season.
Obviously, it’s been nothing short of a struggle for Nola ahead of an offseason where he’ll be a free agent for the first time in his nine-year MLB career. At one point in the season, Nola allowed a home run in 12 consecutive starts, tying a club record.
Now, for as bad as that may seem, Nola has persevered. He has lasted for at least six innings in 14 of his 17 starts, and it is usually just one awful inning where Nola implodes. During the fourth inning, Nola has a 7.56 ERA this season, and once things get bad, they get very, very bad. He has had trouble pitching out of the stretch this season, which has caused many innings to spiral out of control. With this in mind, it is especially important for Nola to keep a lot of balls on the ground and avoid walks.
Luckily for Nola, just three of the Rays’ game-one starters have faced him before, and they are a combined 0-6.
Here is the lineup that will back Nola in game one:
- Kyle Schwarber LF
- Trea Turner SS
- Nick Castellanos RF
- Bryce Harper DH
- J.T. Realmuto C
- Bryson Stott 2B
- Alec Bohm 3B
- Darick Hall 1B
- Brandon Marsh CF
Standout Stats
In 24 at-bats against Rays’ starter Zach Eflin, Phillies’ shortstop Trea Turner has a .292 batting average, two home runs, and five RBI.
Rays’ Yandy Diaz has the eighth-most hard-hit balls in the American League this season.
Phillies’ catcher J.T. Realmuto has a .312 average and .982 OPS in road games this season. In home games, he has an OPS of just .506.
Game Times and Broadcasts
- Tuesday, July 4, at 4:10pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB Network, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
- Wednesday, July 5, at 6:40pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, MLB Network, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
- Thursday, July 6, at 6:40pm ET on NBC Sports Philadelphia, WTTM 1680 (Spanish), and 94.1 WIP
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Aaron Nola (RHP, 7-5, 4.51 ERA) vs. Zach Eflin (RHP, 9-3, 3.29 ERA)
Game 2: Taijuan Walker (RHP, 9-3, 3.93 ERA) vs. TBD
Game 3: Christopher Sanchez LHP, 0-3, 3.26 ERA) vs. TBD
By the Numbers
- Run Differential
- Phillies: 6
- Rays: 157
- Runs Scored Per Game
- Phillies: 4.54
- Rays: 5.61
- Runs Allowed Per Game
- Phillies: 4.47
- Rays: 3.8
Game coverage will be available on Philly Sports Reports’ Twitter page.
