Bury Them — Series Preview: Phillies at Mets, August 25-27

If you had told me a month ago that the Phillies would be going into this series in Queens with a 7-game lead in the East, I wouldn’t have believed you. When the New York Mets came to Philly, then went to Houston and played listless, flat baseball, a 7-game lead felt as improbable as Jhoan Duran being the Phils’ closer. Yet, here we are.

That sets the stage for one of the most important series of the season. The Phillies will travel to Citi Field in Queens, New York, to take on the second-place Mets in a division showdown. This series will undoubtedly be played with playoff intensity, and for the first time since last October’s collapse in New York. This series feels like a great time to get that monkey off their back and exorcise those playoff demons from last season.

Starting Dominance Must Continue For the Phillies

When Phillies ace and Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler underwent a thrombolysis procedure to remove a blood clot, he was subsequently recommended for venous thoracic outlet surgery, and there was some outside hope that he could return for the playoffs. Instead, he will be out 6-8 months and miss the playoffs. Luckily, Aaron Nola made his return from the injured list, but the thought of running a 6-man rotation to extend the Phils starters’ rest was squashed with the news about Wheeler. Let’s take off our fan hats for a moment, and be happy that Wheels is going to be ok. This type of thing can very easily be life-threatening, and the news of him having successful surgeries to correct the issue is the most important thing.

The thing is that now the starters need to continue to step up. The Mets outscored the Braves 21-9 in their 2 wins in the series against the Braves, so stopping the Mets from getting rolling offensively is going to be incredibly important in this series. In the Braves series, they got home runs from Juan Soto and Pete Alonso, which is to be expected, but they also got long ball contributions from Jeff McNeil, Mark Vientos, and Starling Marte. Not to mention RBI production from the bottom of the lineup.

With that said, the Phillies’ starting staff has been pitching well since Wheels went down. The only game that was not considered a quality start was Taijuan Walker‘s game one loss against the Nationals, and that wasn’t even that bad of a game. To leave with a series win, it’s crucial for the starters to go deep into games and set up the bullpen for success.

Keeping the Offense From Falling Into Being One-Dimensional

While the Seattle series was great to see from the Phils’ offense, the Nationals series didn’t have any huge explosions like the Seattle series did, but what the Phillies did was hit better situationally. There were only three home runs in the series, one by J.T. Realmuto, Edmundo Sosa, and Trea Turner, respectively, but the Phils came up with the clutch hits when it counted. This is a great sign for the Phillies, who press too hard when the long ball dries up, which ends up leading to what we saw in Cincinnati — a team guessing and trying to hit home runs.

In the Seattle series, the offense definitely showed that the ‘up the middle’ approach is its key to success. This leads to them being more selective and going with what the pitcher gives them, and hitting the ball all over the yard. As they get more selective, they see more pitches, and that means they get to the bullpen faster. The Mets’ bullpen has been terrible this month. This is despite making some splashy trades to bolster their bullpen at the deadline. Getting into the bullpen before the 6th inning will be important for the Phillies to take this series and widen the gap in the East.

Getting Nick Castellanos‘ Groove Back

It’s no secret, August has been incredibly cruel to Castellanos. In the Friday night game against the Nationals, he was 3-4 with 2 runs scored, and his body language was that of a confident player. On Saturday, he went 0-3 with a walk, but he didn’t look defeated after his at-bats. In the Sunday finale of the series, he went 2-4 and scored another run.

This was huge for his confidence, and as one of the bigger personalities on the team, getting his swagger back is going to be important in the pennant race of September and the playoffs in October. In this series, he looked like he was having fun at the plate, something that has been a rare sight in August so far. Castellanos has earned the benefit of the doubt, and I’m glad that Rob Thomson kept him in the lineup.

He hits the Mets well, with a .291 batting average with 65 hits, 10 home runs, 35 RBIs, and 28 runs scored in 59 games versus the Mets in his career, and an emergent Castellanos makes a series win more likely. Whatever he ate this weekend against the Nationals, let’s hope the catering team has for him in New York.

Lengthening the Division Lead Starts in This Series

If last season taught us anything, it’s that this Mets team seems to turn it on in September, so creating some separation in the NL East is going to be important for the Phils. While the Phils have had stretches of playing inconsistent baseball this season, they have something to build on. They can prove that the Cincinnati series was an anomaly and move on. So far, they have done this, splitting with the Nationals in Washington, sweeping the Mariners, and winning the series against the Nationals at home.

After this three-game series, we will have a better idea of who the Phillies are as they head into the last month of the season, as they fight for a first-round bye in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

Game Times and Broadcasts

Monday, August 25th, 7:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Tuesday, August 26th, 7:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, TBS, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Wednesday, August 27th, 7:10 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 94.1 WIP, WTTM 1680

Probable Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Cristopher Sanchez (LHP, 11-4, 2.46 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (RHP, 7-5, 2.58 ERA)

Game 2: Jesus Luzardo (LHP, 12-6, 4.10 ERA) vs. Sean Manaea (LHP, 1-2, 5.15 ERA)

Game 3: Taijuan Walker (RHP, 4-6, 3.44 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (RHP, 2-0, 1.46 ERA)

By The Numbers

• Records
  • Phillies: 76-54
  • Mets: 69-61
• Run Differential
  • Phillies: 101
  • Mets: 47
• Runs Scored Per Game
  • Phillies: 4.76
  • Mets: 4.57
• Runs Allowed Per Game
  • Phillies: 3.98
  • Mets: 4.20

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